Reconnaissance aircraft investigating Melissa are finding that it is rapidly strengthening this evening. In fact, the most recent reports from them indicate that it is at least a 105-110 mph hurricane right now, even though the 8 pm advisory showed 100 mph maximum winds.

It is extremely evident on satellite imagery that Melissa is wrapping up quickly and it is now undergoing rapid strengthening. I fully expect it to be a major Category 3 hurricane by either late tonight or sometime on Sunday morning. Even more rapid strengthening will likely occur as we get into later Sunday and Monday & because of this, it looks extremely likely now that Melissa will be a Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane when it directly impacts Jamaica on Tuesday.

We are now witnessing what will likely be a worst-case hurricane scenario for Jamaica. It is expected that Jamaica will see 48 consecutive hours of tropical storm force to hurricane force winds & extremely heavy rain starting tomorrow (Sunday). This will lead to the potential for catastrophic rainfall induced flooding & mudslides before the Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane conditions reach the island.

Those winds of up to Category 4 to Category 5 strength look to impact Jamaica during the day on Tuesday & this will lead to major to extreme damage on the island. A very large storm surge is also expected on the south coast of Jamaica.

It cannot be emphasized enough that this could be the strongest hurricane to ever directly hit the island in recorded history.

I implore those of you on the island of Jamaica to take this hurricane extremely seriously. If you have family or relatives on the island, please tell them to take this hurricane extremely seriously. Make absolutely sure that you are in a very sturdy and safe building & be aware that you will be in that shelter for at least 4 days straight.

A new full discussion on Melissa will be sent out around midday Sunday. Short updates on this hurricane will be sent out as needed.