Things are about as quiet as they could be out across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf. Today is the climatological peak day of hurricane season & there are not only no tropical storms or hurricanes to worry about across the Atlantic Basin, but there are no tropical disturbances that are worth noting across the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf.
Weather analysis today reveals that there is an upper level low pressure centered over the central North Atlantic. This upper level low pressure system is leading to conditions to be unfavorable for tropical development across much of the tropical Atlantic into the eastern Caribbean due to dry air and some wind shear. Further west, conditions are also unfavorable for tropical development from the western Caribbean through the Gulf and into the southwestern North Atlantic due to mostly strong wind shear.
All-in-all, the combination of sinking air, dry air and unfavorable wind shear conditions are squashing any chances of tropical development right now. This all means that I do not expect to see any sort of tropical development to occur across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf throughout the rest of this week right through at least this weekend.
Tropical Development Chances Still Look To Begin To Increase Starting Next Week Across The Atlantic Basin: There seems to be increasing support in the data that suggests the Atlantic Basin will open up for business once again starting next week.
A tropical wave is anticipated to push off of the coast of Africa during this weekend and then head across the eastern Tropical Atlantic as we get into next week. Conditions may become more favorable for this wave to develop as we get into the second half of next week as it moves from the eastern Tropical Atlantic into the central Tropical Atlantic.
A look at the model guidance reveals that both the European and GFS ensemble model guidance forecast development from this wave. The European ensemble model guidance is showing upwards of a 50-60 percent chance of development of this wave by late next week & the GFS ensemble model guidance shows a 80-90 percent chance of development of this wave.
The Google Deep Mind AI model also shows a decent chance of this wave developing later next week as it heads through the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic.
All of the ensemble guidance and the Deep Mind AI model show this system lifting northward well before it reaches the eastern Caribbean Islands leading it to potentially be of no threat to the Caribbean.
Looking beyond this, the Atlantic Basin should begin to become more favorable for development overall in about 10-14 days from now. What looks to possibly occur is that an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation should make its way into the Atlantic by then causing a favorable background state for development.
That being said, I’ve already seen a few instances this hurricane season where conditions were supposed to have become more favorable “in 10 to 14 days from now” and those conditions ultimately never occur. This could end up happening again here & because of this, I do have some skepticism as to how favorable conditions may actually become. No matter what happens though, I am keeping a very close eye on things.
Another area that might need to be watched is the western Caribbean where there’s the possibility of tropical mischief as soon as next week. That said, I have some skepticism of western Caribbean development occurring. The reason for my skepticism is due to the fact there are very few models actually showing development occurring in the western Caribbean.
At this time, the GFS model seems to be the most consistent in forecasting tropical development occurring in the western Caribbean as soon as early next week. It needs to be stated that the GFS model has a bias of spinning up erroneous storms in the western Caribbean & this is the reason for my skepticism.
That said, the latest forecast run of the Canadian model now shows tropical development occurring in the western Caribbean late next week. We’re going to have to see if other models start picking up on the possibility of development occurring in the western Caribbean. If this does occur, then we might need to start considering the potential for western Caribbean occurring. For now though, besides the GFS and Canadian models, none of the other models or their ensemble counterparts show development occurring in the western Caribbean next week.
Either way, this will be something that I’ll be keeping an eye on, no matter what happens.
Bottom Line Is That even though things are eerily quiet across the Atlantic during the peak of the hurricane season, we still have about 60 percent of the season’s activity in front of us, historically. So, enjoy the silence of the Atlantic, but don’t become complacent & think we’re done with the hurricane season, because unfortunately, we’re not.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.