All is quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf with no areas of interest today. Indications seem to point towards a very quiet week across the tropics with no tropical development expected. In fact, no tropical development is highly likely through this weekend & possibly into much of next week across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf.
An analysis of the environmental conditions across the Atlantic Basin reveals why things remain so very quiet. A very dry and stable airmass exists across the Caribbean, as well as across the tropical Atlantic. This has led to any westward tropical waves to dry up before they even get a chance to start getting going.
Looking towards the Gulf and the southwestern North Atlantic, the wind shear values are low enough to support development in this region. Even with this being a thing, there are no areas of disturbed weather that will be taking advantage of these favorable conditions for at least the next several days, if not longer.
Given everything that I’ve looked at, it appears very likely that we will not see any sort of tropical development across the Atlantic Basin for at least the next week or so. Looking a bit further out, some of the model guidance are hinting at the possibility of some eastern Tropical Atlantic development towards late next week. Even if we do see tropical development out over the eastern Tropical Atlantic, the wall of very strong wind shear out over the central Tropical Atlantic will squash any development before it reaches the Lesser Antilles.
Closer to home, none of the model guidance seems to show development over the Gulf or the western Atlantic through the middle part of this month. Even with this, I’ll still keep a look out, just in case we see any unforeseen in-close tropical development. For now though, there’s zero indication that we will see in-close tropical development for at least the next week.
Looking even further out in time, it’s possible that we could see some tropical mischief in the Gulf towards the end of this month. Model guidance seems to be hinting that the Gulf may try to spit out a tropical system near the end of this month. The European ensemble guidance are showing up to a 20 percent chance of tropical development in the Gulf right near the end of this month. This is a long ways out there in time, but it may be something to keep in mind for the end of this month for those with interests in the Gulf.