All is quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf today & no tropical development is expected for at least the next 10 days to possibly 14 days.

Weather analysis today reveals that a frontal system stretches from the northwestern Caribbean east-northeastward through the Bahamas and then into the open North Atlantic. While there is some disorganized convection occurring over the far western Caribbean, no development is expected due to very strong wind shear values.

These unfavorable environmental conditions are likely to persist across the Atlantic Basin throughout the rest of this week right through all of next week.

Looking beyond this, most of the reliable model guidance show no areas of potential tropical development for at least the next 10 to 14 days. The exception to this is the GFS model and its ensemble members, which do show an area of potential tropical development during next week in the southwestern Caribbean. The GFS model should be used with an abundance amount of skepticism this time of year. The GFS model tends to incorrectly spin up tropical systems in the western Caribbean this time of year, when in the end nothing ends up occurring. Because of this, I am ignoring the GFS model’s forecast of southwestern and western Caribbean tropical development next week and so should you.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.