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Melissa Is Almost A Hurricane & Is Expected To Rapidly Strengthen Into A Major Hurricane Over The Next Couple Of Days; Long-Duration Severe Impacts In Jamaica Are Expected This Weekend Into Next Week

Saturday, October 25, 2025 11:17 am

Tropical Storm Melissa: Reconnaissance aircraft investigating Melissa this morning have found that it is very close to hurricane strength & probably will become one by the end of today. While some westerly shear is still affecting Melissa, it is still undergoing steady strengthening. All indications are pointing towards Melissa rapidly strengthening over the next couple […]

Friday Evening Update On Melissa, Which Is Now Strengthening This Evening

Friday, October 24, 2025 7:21 pm

Reconnaissance aircraft are currently investigating Melissa this evening and have found that the storm is now strengthening. Latest reports reveal that the central barometric pressure with Melissa has fallen to 991 to 993 millibars, which is a drop of 4 millibars from early this afternoon. The main reason why I am sending out this update […]

Melissa Is Expected To Severely Impact Jamaica For Several Days As A Major Hurricane Beginning This Weekend

Friday, October 24, 2025 12:35 pm

Tropical Storm Melissa: Reconnaissance aircraft have been flying through Melissa all morning long. They have found that the deep convection associated with Melissa has tugged the low-level center to the east-southeast as compared to where it was located just last night. This has caused the storm to stack a little more with the low and […]

Melissa Is Expected To Become A Hurricane & Affect Jamaica With Extremely Heavy Rain & Strong Winds Starting This Weekend

Thursday, October 23, 2025 12:06 pm

Tropical Storm Melissa: Melissa is being impacted by west-southwesterly wind shear of up to 20-30 knots today & because of this the low-level center is partially exposed. In addition, this west-southwesterly wind shear is blowing the deepest convection to the east of the low-level center. As of right now, Melissa still has 50 mph maximum […]

Melissa Looks To Meander Near Jamaica For Several Days Where It Will Become A Major Hurricane

Wednesday, October 22, 2025 12:43 pm

Tropical Storm Melissa: Even though Melissa is producing deep convection, most of this convection is being blown to the east of the low-level center. The reason for this is due to westerly wind shear of 20-30 knots impacting the storm. Because of this, any strengthening over the past 12-24 hours has been very slow. Still […]

Tropical Storm Melissa Has Formed In The Central Caribbean & Is Likely To Be A Slow Moving Problem Maker For The Central & Western Caribbean

Tuesday, October 21, 2025 11:59 am

Tropical Storm Melissa: The tropical disturbance that was once Invest 98-L has become organized enough today to be considered a tropical storm. Because of this, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Invest 98-L to Tropical Storm Melissa. Melissa has an organized deep convection and a well-defined low-level center with 50 mph maximum winds and central […]

Disclaimer:  All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster.  However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.