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Tropical Storm Chantal: Tropical Depression #3 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Chantal this morning.

Satellite imagery and other weather analysis indicates that Chantal is much more organized this morning as compared to what it looked like yesterday. The center of Chantal is located on the western end of the deepest convection with most of the thunderstorm activity occurring to the east of the center. Bursts of new deep thunderstorm activity is occurring as I write this.

Analysis indicates that there is low amounts of wind shear occurring right over the center of Chantal and this means that the environmental conditions are favorable for some additional strengthening the rest of today. It would not surprise me at all to see Chantal peak at 55-60 mph before it comes onshore along the northeastern South Carolina coast by Sunday morning.

Squalls of heavy rain and gusty winds will likely begin affecting the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts by late this afternoon and certainly by tonight. These squalls will then continue through Sunday. Given that most of the squalls are located on the eastern side of the storm, the most robust squalls will likely to affect coastal areas of northeastern South Carolina and all of coastal southeastern and eastern North Carolina throughout tonight and Sunday. Wind gusts of up to 50-60 mph and rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches can be expected in an area from about Myrtle Beach through all of coastal southeastern North Carolina to the southern parts of the outer banks of North Carolina.

Forecast Impacts:
Wind:

Rainfall:

Storm Surge:

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

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Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the area of disturbed weather located east of the coast of northeast Florida have found a increasingly more organized system. They also have found a system with 30-35 mph maximum winds and because of this, Invest 92-L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression #3.

Additional strengthening is likely and I fully expect to see this system become a tropical storm as soon as later tonight or during the day on Saturday. Once the depression is upgraded to a tropical storm, it’s name will be Chantal.

TD 3 is expected to gradually move north and northwestward during later tonight and during the day on Saturday. TD 3 is expected to come ashore along the coast of South Carolina as a 40-50 mph tropical storm late Saturday night or during Sunday morning.

Even though it will be a tropical storm, the main effects from this system will be heavy rainfall, which will affect the coastal Carolinas throughout Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall totals of up to 2 to 4 inches can be expected across eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.

That said, some 40-50 mph wind gusts can be expected on Saturday night into Sunday morning across coastal parts of northeast South Carolina and parts of coastal southeast and eastern North Carolina.

Next Full Discussion Will Be Sent Out on Saturday.

Invest 92-L Located About 100 Miles Offshore Of The Coast Of Northeast Florida: It looks like we have a developing tropical system off of the northeast Florida coast today. In fact, I think the chances are high that Invest 92-L will be a tropical storm by the time it comes ashore along the South Carolina coast on Sunday.

The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located offshore of the northeast Florida coast are becoming more concentrated today. This low pressure system has been designated Invest 92-L by the National Hurricane Center. It will be interesting to see what the hurricane hunters find when they fly in and investigate this system this afternoon.

Analysis of environmental conditions reveals that the wind shear values are marginally favorable for development and strengthening of Invest 92-L. Because of this, I think the ceiling of intensification is pretty low, but I also think that it is likely that it will probably strengthen into a tropical storm probably either later tonight or during the day on Saturday.

A look at the track model guidance indicates that most of the guidance forecast Invest 92-L to come ashore along the South Carolina coastline between about Hilton Head and Charleston on Sunday morning. As for intensity, most of the guidance point to Invest 92-L peaking at somewhere between a 35 mph tropical depression and a 45 mph tropical storm.

I also wanted to mention that the model guidance forecasts that Invest 92-L may reemerge off of the North Carolina or Virginia coastlines on Tuesday and then head northeastward tracking either very near Cape Cod, Massachusetts or offshore of southeastern New England around Wednesday where some of intensity guidance forecasts re-intensification into a tropical storm.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think that it is very likely that Invest 92-L will strengthen to a low-end tropical storm with perhaps 40-45 mph winds probably during the day on Saturday. Given how solid it looks on satellite imagery, I definitely can see how it will become a tropical storm sooner rather than later.

I then expect Invest 92-L to come ashore along the South Carolina coast very near Charleston either during later Saturday night or during Sunday morning as a tropical storm with 40-45 mph winds.

The main threat from this system will be heavy rainfall, first across the Florida Peninsula today and then across the coastal Carolinas throughout Saturday and Sunday.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected throughout the rest of today along Florida’s west and southwest coasts, as well as along the I-4 corridor from Tampa through Orlando & also across Florida’s Space Coast.

Turning to the coastal Carolinas, locally heavy rain is expected throughout Saturday and Sunday, especially across northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina where 2 to 4 inches of rain can be expected.

Further north, parts of Southern New England might need to be watched for possible locally heavy rainfall around the middle part of next week as whatever is left of this system passes near or to the east of Southern New England.

Finally, rip currents will be a threat along the coast from eastern and northeastern Florida northward through the coastal Carolinas throughout this weekend.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Forecast Additional Rainfall Amounts Today:

Forecast Rainfall Amounts From Saturday Through Monday:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.

Tropical Development Is Looking Likely This Weekend Near The Coasts Of Northeast Florida, Southeast Georgia & Eastern South Carolina: Weather analysis at the time of this writing indicated that there is a frontal boundary that stretches from the Carolinas to the Gulf Coast. This front is expected to push offshore and be located from off of the Carolinas to the northern Gulf by Friday.

I think that it is looking likely that we will see a tropical depression or even a low-end tropical storm spin up near the coastal parts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia or eastern South Carolina as this front decays during this weekend.

Satellite imagery right now shows that most of the shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring just offshore of the Carolina coastline to just east of the Space Coast of Florida. At this time, there are no areas that are showing any sort of low or mid-level circulation, but analysis of wind shear values indicates that the wind shear is low enough to support development all along the Southeast coast of the United States.

While immediate tropical development is not expected over the next day or so, the environment does look to favor development this weekend from coastal northeast Florida to the coastal Carolinas.

Latest Model Guidance: The model guidance are in good agreement in forecasting tropical development to occur just barely offshore of coastal Georgia and the Carolinas during this weekend. This model agreement includes both the GFS and European model, as well as their ensemble model counterparts. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance is now forecasting a 90 percent chance of tropical development and a 30-40 percent chance of this system becoming a tropical storm just offshore of coastal northeast Florida, coastal Georgia and coastal South Carolina.

As for a track, the GFS ensemble model guidance seem to agree on a northeasterly track with most members taking this system near the North Carolina coast around Monday and then fairly offshore of the New England coast by about the middle part of next week.

A large majority of the European ensemble model guidance seem to be further west of the GFS ensemble model and take this system right over eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina on Sunday and Monday. Beyond this, the European ensemble model guidance forecast this system to curve to the northeast and pass to east of New England, although there are a couple of members that do forecast a track right over southeastern New England on Tuesday.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I already mentioned, I think that it is likely we will see the development of a tropical depression or a low-end tropical storm during this weekend near coastal parts of northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. In fact, I am putting the chances for at around 80-90 percent.

This tropical system, which again looks to probably end up being a tropical depression or perhaps a low-end tropical storm, should track northward into the coastal Carolinas by later Sunday into Monday. A curve to the northeast looks most plausible early next week taking this system to the east of New England. I’m not buying into the possibility of this system directly affecting Southern New England and think it should pass to the east.

Heavy Rainfall Will Be The Main Threat With This System: Heavy rainfall is going to be a threat throughout the Fourth of July weekend across much of the Florida Peninsula & particularly along the west coast of Florida and along the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando.

The heaviest rain in the form of showers and thunderstorms throughout the rest of today looks to occur along the west and southwest coasts of Florida, especially from Tampa and points south.

Turning to Friday, the environment will be favorable for widespread showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall across much of the Florida Peninsula. The area of most concern will be right along the entire I-4 corridor from Tampa through Orlando to Daytona Beach where over 3 inches of additional rainfall is expected.

Turning to Saturday and Sunday, the heavy rainfall looks to shift to the coastal areas of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina as that tropical depression or low-end tropical storm takes shape. Upwards of 2 to 5 inches of rainfall looks possible, especially across coastal South Carolina and coastal North Carolina.

Heavy rain also looks to continue along Florida’s I-4 corridor on Saturday with an additional 1 to 2 inches expected.

The heavy rainfall during the next few days across the Florida Peninsula and particularly along the west coast of Florida and along the I-4 corridor will lead to localized areas of flooding with urban areas and low-lying areas most vulnerable.

Forecast Total Rainfall Amounts The Next Few Days:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Tropical Development Looks Possible Near The Coasts Of Northeast Florida, Southeast Georgia & Eastern South Carolina This Weekend: The latest weather analysis as of today indicated that there is a weakening cold front pushing southward into the Carolinas and parts of the Deep South. This cold front is expected to continue weakening as it pushes into the area from the northern Gulf eastward to across Florida and into the southwestern North Atlantic as we get into Thursday and Friday. It is quite possible that we could see a tropical depression or a tropical storm spin up from this front this weekend near the coastal parts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia or eastern South Carolina.

A look at satellite imagery right now indicated that there seems to be two areas of convection to watch. The first area is located over the northeastern Gulf where convection has persisted since yesterday. The wind shear values over this convection are favorable for development, however, any associated spin is disconnected from the convection. The second area of convection looks more frontal and is likely connected to the approaching front. This convection stretches from the northernmost Bahamas northeastward to off of the Carolina coastline. All-in-all, both areas of convection are not expected to develop immediately.

Latest Model Guidance: The model guidance have begun to hone in on the more possible area to watch for development this weekend as they now seem to agree that the area between near the coast of northeast Florida and near the Carolina coastline is the spot to watch.

A majority of the GFS ensemble model guidance members that do show development forecast this system to form near the coasts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina during this weekend. The ensemble model guidance members then show any system to head northeastward and stay well east of New England during the first half of next week.

The latest European ensemble model guidance agrees with the GFS ensemble model guidance in that most of its members show development occurring very near coastal parts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina during this weekend. Most of the ensemble members show any system to head north and northwestward towards the coastal Carolinas by early next week. The European ensemble model guidance also is forecasting up to a 60 percent chance of tropical development near coastal parts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina during this weekend.

Here Are My Thoughts: Based on all of the data available, I think that the area to keep a close eye on is near coastal parts of northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina where the development chances are increasing for this weekend. As I have mentioned in previous discussions, old fronts sitting over the warm waters of the southwestern North Atlantic are ripe for producing spin-up tropical systems and this is exactly what I think will occur this coming weekend.

I think the chance for the development of a tropical depression or a low end tropical storm are at around 65 percent during this weekend near the coasts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina. Any system would probably then be pulled northward towards the coastal Carolinas during the early part of next week.

Heavy Rainfall Threat Concentrated Across Parts Of The Florida Peninsula: Heavy rainfall is going to be a threat the next several days, including during the entire Fourth of July weekend, across much of the Florida Peninsula & particularly along the west coast of Florida and along the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando.

The heavy rain threat looks to develop on Thursday in the form of showers and thunderstorms across a large part of the Florida Peninsula with the highest amounts occurring along Florida’s west coast. The heavy rainfall will likely produce local areas of flooding in urban environments and low-lying areas. Street, highway and small stream flooding is also possible.

Turning to the Fourth of July holiday weekend – The combination of tropical moisture, an unstable air mass and forcing from the developing system near the southeastern coast of the US will lead to the threat for heavy rainfall across a large part of the Florida Peninsula. As I already mentioned, the west coast of Florida and areas near the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando will see the heaviest rainfall amounts this weekend. This heavy rainfall will lead to localized areas of flooding with urban areas and low-lying areas most vulnerable.

Forecast Total Rainfall Totals From Thursday To Monday:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.

Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible Either Near The Southeast Coast Of The United States Or In The Northeastern Gulf During The Fourth Of July Holiday Weekend: Weather analysis as of today revealed an eastward moving frontal boundary that’s currently pushing into the eastern and southern United States. This frontal system is expected to stall and become an old front that sits off of the US Southeast coast by Thursday and Friday. It is then expected that a low pressure system will form along this front either somewhere near the US Southeast Coast or right over Florida or over the northeastern Gulf. Where exactly this low pressure system forms remains highly uncertain & is going to be important in determining whether tropical development might occur and also determine where any possible tropical system might go. All-in-all, this remains an uncertain and difficult forecast, but it’s a scenario that I’m watching very closely.

Latest Model Guidance: Most of the GFS ensemble model guidance members that do show development forecast this development to occur somewhere between offshore the coast of northeast Florida and near the Carolina coastline by about Saturday. The ensemble model guidance members then show any system to head northeastward and stay well east of New England during the first half of next week.

While a majority of the European ensemble model guidance members that do forecast development show it occurring very near coastal parts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia and coastal South Carolina, there are a few members that forecast the development to occur out to the south of Bermuda. This development by the European ensemble model guidance looks to occur by about Saturday and a majority of the ensemble members show any system to head north and northwestward towards the coastal Carolinas by early next week. It should be noted though that the European ensemble model guidance has decreased development chances to about 30 percent just offshore of the US Southeast coast.

Here Are My Thoughts: Even though it seems like most of the model guidance are concentrating any development to occur near the US Southeast coast, I still think that the area in the northeastern Gulf is also a candidate for possible development. Old fronts sitting over the warm waters of the northeast Gulf and the southwestern North Atlantic are ripe for producing spin-up tropical systems near the tail end of that front and this is exactly what I think will occur this coming weekend.

All-in-all, I do think that the chances for tropical development somewhere in the northeast Gulf or near the US Southeast Coast seem to be gradually increasing.

There are at least a couple of scenarios that could occur this weekend.

The first scenario is for the low pressure system forming in the southwestern North Atlantic around Friday or Saturday and then becoming a depression or even a tropical storm as it tracks towards the Carolinas by about early next week.

The second scenario is for low pressure to form in the northeastern Gulf this weekend and head towards the central Gulf coast as a messy and very wet depression or tropical storm by early next week.

The third potential scenario is for the low pressure system to remain land locked over the Florida Peninsula this weekend & just “raining itself out” & never developing.

This is not an easy forecast at all, but be sure that I will be monitoring every aspect of this setup closely throughout the rest of this week.

Whether this system develops or not, it will still produce a rainy Fourth Of July holiday weekend across the entire Florida Panhandle and much of the Florida Peninsula. Some of this rainfall is also expected to affect the coastal Carolinas, southern Georgia and southern Alabama. The bullseye area of heaviest rainfall looks to be across the coastal parts of the Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend area of Florida and along the west coast of Florida from about Fort Myers and points north, including the Tampa Bay area leading to localized flash flooding.

Forecast Total Rainfall Amounts Late This Week Through This Weekend:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Barry made landfall yesterday evening just south of Tampico, Mexico as a 40-45 mph tropical storm and is now inland over eastern Mexico. Since moving inland, Barry has weakened and is no longer considered a tropical cyclone and full dissipation is likely to occur within the next 12-24 hours.

The remnants of Barry are expected to continue to produce heavy rainfall throughout the rest of today into Tuesday across mostly northeastern Mexico leading to possible flooding and mudslides.

This will be the last update on Barry.

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Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible From The Northeastern Gulf To Near The Southeastern Coast Of The United States During The Fourth Of July Holiday Weekend: We are going to be closely watching the area from the northeastern Gulf to near the Southeast coast of the United States for possible tropical development late this week through this weekend.

The combination of an upper level weather disturbance and a stationary front stalled over the southeastern United States is likely to lead to persistent shower and thunderstorm activity to occur across the Florida Panhandle and the central and northern Florida Peninsula throughout the next few days.

This front is then expected to linger from the very warm waters of the northeastern Gulf to near the Gulf Stream near the southeastern coast of the United States where a low pressure system looks to form by about Thursday or Friday. There is then the potential for this low pressure system to become a tropical system as it meanders around throughout the long holiday weekend.

The question then becomes where will this potential tropical system form. Will it develop over the northeastern Gulf just west of Florida; will it form right over interior parts of the Florida Peninsula or southern Georgia; or will it form over the waters just offshore of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia and the Carolinas. All are equally possible as scenarios and the model guidance are of little help in figuring out which scenario might be more likely.

Most of the GFS ensemble model guidance members show development occurring between coastal northeast Florida and the coastal Carolinas, although it does have a few members pointing to northeast Gulf development.

As for the European ensemble model guidance – There are an equal amount of members showing development in the northeastern Gulf versus just offshore of the Southeast coast of the US. That said, it should be noted that the European ensemble model guidance does show a 50 percent chance of tropical development in the northeast Gulf late this week into this weekend.

I think that it may be at least a couple of more days before we really know where exactly the low pressure system might form. It should be noted that the northeastern Gulf has some of the warmest waters in the entire Atlantic Basin & if tropical development does occur here, it could become a problem quite quickly.

This is also likely to be a forecasting nightmare as the steering winds from the Gulf into the western Atlantic are going to be quite weak. This means that whatever does form will move very slowly and even drift around at times leading to uncertainty as to where exactly it will ultimately go. So, on one hand, if we see development occur over the southwestern North Atlantic, it would be pushed very slowly northeastward into the open Atlantic. On the other hand, if development occurs in the northeastern Gulf, it would drift very slowly westward through the northern Gulf.

Here Are My Thoughts: I definitely do think that the area from the northeastern Gulf to the Southeastern coast of the United States needs to be watched very closely for possible tropical development late this week through this weekend. The development chances are still low, however, due to how uncertain where exactly this system might form & where it may go.

On one hand, it’s actually quite possible that the low pressure could end up being land locked and never really emerges in the Gulf or the Atlantic leading to no development at all.

On the other hand, it’s also quite possible we could see the low pressure system meander around the northeastern Gulf or the southwestern Atlantic leading to the increasing likelihood of development.

Obviously, this is not an easy forecast at all, but rest assured I will be monitoring things very closely throughout this week.

Either way, this weather system is likely to produce a rainy Fourth Of July holiday weekend across the entire Florida Panhandle and much of the Florida Peninsula. Some of this rainfall is also expected to affect southern Georgia, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and far southeastern Louisiana. The bullseye area of heaviest rainfall still looks to be across all of the Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend area of Florida and along the west coast of Florida from about Fort Myers and points north, including the Tampa Bay area leading to localized flash flooding.

Forecast Total Rainfall Amounts Late This Week Through This Weekend:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

UPDATE – Tropical Depression #2 Is Now Tropical Storm Barry Reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the depression in the Bay of Campeche has found a more defined circulation with reported winds of up to 40-45 mph. Because of this, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded TD 2 to Tropical Storm Barry as of 11 am EDT/10 am CDT today.

Tropical Depression #2: Reconnaissance aircraft investigated the area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche yesterday afternoon and found that this system was at tropical depression strength. Because of that, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Invest 91-L to Tropical Depression #2 at 5 pm EDT/4 pm CDT yesterday afternoon.

Latest reports from recon aircraft have found that TD 2 is quite disorganized & it appears quite possible that it will not reach tropical storm strength before it comes ashore in eastern Mexico by Monday morning. The depression is moving towards the west-northwest and it looks very likely that it will move in a west-northwest to northwest direction over the next 24 hours or so. Because of this, it looks probable that TD 2 will come ashore in eastern Mexico very near Tampico as soon as tonight or Monday morning.

Once TD 2 moves inland into eastern Mexico on Monday, it will quickly dissipate.

The main threat from the depression will be heavy rainfall across eastern Mexico. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches can be expected across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas the rest of today through Monday. This heavy rainfall has the potential to produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in hilly terrain.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible From The Northeastern Gulf To Near The Southeastern Coast Of The United States Late This Coming Week: It continues to look like the area from the northeastern Gulf to near the Southeast coast of the United States will need to be watched closely for possible tropical development during the late parts of this coming week as a low pressure system may form near the tail end of an old frontal boundary.

Any possible developing tropical system may then meander around the area from the northeastern Gulf to near the Carolina coastline as we heads towards next weekend.

Looking At The Latest Model Guidance: While there continues to be agreement between all of the model guidance that tropical development may occur in the area from the northeastern Gulf to near the Southeast Coast of the United States during late this week and next weekend, they disagree as to where exactly this system might form and where it might go.

The latest GFS model run (06Z run) has backed off some with its forecast development. It now shows a weak low pressure system meandering around the northeastern Gulf late this week into next week before moving inland into southern Georgia around next Monday.

The Canadian model forecasts that any low pressure system might form just offshore of the Georgia and northeast Florida coast by Friday. It then forecasts this system to meander around near the coasts of South Carolina, Georgia and northeast Florida throughout next weekend before moving inland into southeastern Georgia or eastern South Carolina next Monday.

The European model hints at a low pressure system forming over the northeastern Gulf around Thursday or Friday and then meandering near north Florida through Saturday. Beyond this, the European model forecasts this system to meander near the coasts of northeast Florida and southeastern Georgia throughout next weekend before moving inland into southeastern Georgia by next Monday.

The European ensemble model still shows about a 40 percent chance for tropical development in the area from near the coasts of northeast Florida to coastal South Carolina late this week into next weekend.

Here Are My Thoughts: My overall thoughts regarding this possible tropical development have not changed since yesterday. I do still think that there is the chance for tropical development to occur somewhere between the northeast Gulf and the coasts of North and South Carolina late this week through next weekend. That being said, I do still think that the chances of tropical development actually occurring are pretty low.

I still don’t really know where exactly this system might form, but I do think that there is an equal chance of any system developing over the northeastern Gulf versus near the Carolina coastline. It’s going to take at least a couple of more days to figure out where any system might form.

For now, this is still nothing to be overly concerned or worried about & is something to keep an eye on.

Finally, this system, whether it develops or not, has the potential to produce heavy rainfall across a large part of the Florida Panhandle and central and northern parts of the Florida Peninsula from the middle and later parts of this week through next weekend. The bullseye area of heaviest rainfall looks to be across all of the Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend area of Florida and along the west coast of Florida from about Fort Myers and points north, including the Tampa Bay area leading to localized flash flood issues.

Forecast Rainfall Amounts Later This Week Through Next Weekend:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Invest 91-L Located In The Bay Of Campeche: As of about midday today, satellite imagery and analysis of weather data indicated that there is a low pressure system now located in the east-central Bay of Campeche. This low pressure system has been designated Invest 91-L by the National Hurricane Center. Satellite imagery does show a broad circulation with Invest 91-L with some deeper convection firing over the far southern parts of the Bay of Campeche. This deeper convection seems to be firing right where the highest amounts of low-level vorticity is occurring.

Invest 91-L is expected to head in a west-northwest direction throughout the rest of this weekend and I do think that there is a pretty good chance that this system will become at least a tropical depression and quite possibly a tropical storm. The reason why I think this is due to the expectation of somewhat favorable environmental conditions in the Bay of Campeche. These conditions include high amounts of moisture, plenty warm water temperatures and marginally favorable wind shear values of around 15-20 knots or so. Also, the shape of the Bay of Campeche is notorious for helping to spin up tropical systems like this & I do think that we’ll see the same thing occur this weekend.

It looks likely that Invest 91-L will come ashore very near or just north of Tampico, Mexico by Monday morning as a tropical depression or possibly even a low-end tropical storm. If Invest 91-L does become a tropical storm, it’s name will be Barry.

Whether Invest 91-L develops or not, it will produce heavy rainfall across much of southern and eastern Mexico throughout this weekend into early next week. This heavy rainfall has the potential to produce flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in hilly terrain. It appears that the heavy rainfall amounts will be found in the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas. Some of this rainfall might affect parts of the Rio Grande Valley later Sunday through Monday.

Finally, I want to emphasize that Invest 91-L, whether it develops or not, poses no threat at all to the Texas coastline or any part of the US Gulf Coast.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

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Tropical Development Continues To Be A Possibility From The Northeastern Gulf To Near The Southeastern Coast Of The United States Late Next Week: Once Invest 91-L moves inland into eastern Mexico on Monday, we will quickly have to turn our attention to the area from the northeastern Gulf to near the Southeast coast of the United States where tropical development will become possible during the second half of next week.

A frontal system is expected to stall out and decay over the northeast Gulf and off of the US Southeast coast during the middle and later parts of next week. It is looking more likely that a low pressure system will form near the tail end of this front during late next week. It is then possible that this low pressure system could develop into a tropical system as it meanders around the area from the northeastern Gulf to near the Carolina coastline late next week through next weekend.

Looking At The Latest Model Guidance: There seems to be agreement between all of the model guidance that tropical development could be a concern in an area from the northeastern Gulf to near the Southeast Coast of the United States during late next week and next weekend. There are differences between the models as to where exactly this system might form and where it might go. This is pretty normal for a forecast that’s almost one week away.

The latest GFS model run (12Z today) shows a low pressure system forming over the northeastern Gulf between Thursday and Friday of next week. The GFS model then forecasts this system to track westward just offshore of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama & Mississippi next weekend before coming ashore over southwestern Mississippi or southeast Louisiana on Monday, July 7.

The Canadian model is much different than the GFS model as it forecasts a low pressure system forming near the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts around Thursday and then moving northeastward into the open Atlantic well southeast of Cape Cod next weekend.

While the European model does show storminess along the old front from the northeastern Gulf through the Florida Peninsula to near the southeastern coast of the US late next week, it doesn’t really show any sort of low pressure system development. Now, the European ensemble model guidance does forecast about a 40 percent chance for tropical development near the Carolina coastline late next week into next weekend.

Here Are My Thoughts: I do think that there is the chance for tropical development to occur somewhere between the northeast Gulf and the coasts of North and South Carolina late next week into next weekend. That being said, I do think that the chances of tropical development actually occurring are still fairly low.

The even more difficult part of the forecast is exactly where will this system possibly form & at this point, I’ll be honest in telling you, I don’t know. I think that there are equal chances of any system developing over the northeastern Gulf versus near the Carolina coastline. It’s going to take at least a couple of days and probably longer to figure out where any system might form.

For now, this is still nothing to be overly concerned or worried about & is something to keep an eye on.

Finally, this system, whether it develops or not, has the potential to produce heavy rainfall across a large part of the Florida Panhandle and central and northern parts of the Florida Peninsula from the middle and later parts of next week right into next weekend. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flood issues, especially across the Florida Panhandle, across the Big Bend area of Florida and in the Tampa metro.

Forecast Rainfall Totals Next Week Through Next Weekend:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.