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Overall, no real changes to what I wrote on Monday. The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf remains quiet today and it appears that any sort of tropical development will not be a concern throughout the rest of this week right through this weekend.

Analysis reveals that very strong wind shear prevails across much of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf. This strong wind shear will prevent any sort of tropical development from occurring.

Turning to next week, there is the possibility of tropical development to occur in the Bay of Campeche or the southwestern Gulf around the middle part of next week. A piece of energy over the eastern Pacific this weekend and early next week may get pulled northward into the Bay of Campeche by around next Wednesday or so.

Looking At The Model Guidance:

The 06Z GFS model run forecasts that disturbed weather will affect much of Central America throughout this weekend into early next week before it pushes into the Bay of Campeche by next Wednesday. The GFS model then forecasts this disturbed weather to remain in place over the Bay of Campeche through late next week before it moves inland into eastern Mexico next weekend.

Quick note on the newest 12Z GFS model, it has trended a bit stronger with its forecast of this disturbance. It shows this disturbance forming near the eastern coast of Central America early next week and then moves northwestward reaching the Bay of Campeche by next Wednesday. The GFS model then forecasts this system to strengthen into a depression or even a tropical storm as it heads north-northwestward into the far western Gulf next Thursday & comes ashore in far northeastern Mexico next Friday.

The Canadian model forecasts that a new tropical cyclone will form in the eastern Pacific this weekend into next week. It then forecasts a piece of energy from this tropical cyclone to break off and move into the Bay of Campeche during the Wednesday to Friday time frame next week. This piece of energy then pushes into eastern Mexico by next weekend.

Interestingly, the European model forecasts an area of low pressure to actually form in the Bay of Campeche around next Wednesday and then head into eastern Mexico by late next week.

The European ensemble model guidance continues to hint at tropical development in the Bay of Campeche with the model forecasting a 30-40 percent chance for tropical development around the middle part of next week.

Here Are My Thoughts: While I think the chances of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf are low next week (probably around 15-20 percent chance), it is something that does need to be watched.

Given the model agreement, I do think that there is a decent chance that we will see an area of disturbed weather move into the Bay of Campeche around next Wednesday or so. It is then quite possible that this area of disturbed weather could try to take advantage of the shape of the coastline of the Bay of Campeche and try to spin up before it moves into eastern Mexico around next Friday or next Saturday.

One thing that we will need to watch is the strength of the high pressure ridge over the southern United States. Right now, model guidance are forecasting this ridge of high pressure system will be strong enough to push any areas of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche quickly westward into eastern Mexico with little or no development. Should the high pressure ridge end up weaker than forecast, it could lead to this area of disturbed weather to try to sneak northward a bit into the western Gulf and try to develop a little more. In fact, the newest 12Z GFS model and a couple of the European ensemble members show exactly this & forecasts this system to travel northward across the western Gulf before moving inland into northeast Mexico or far South Texas next weekend.

Either way, any tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche during the middle and later parts of next week will probably bring heavy rain and flooding to eastern Mexico during the second half of next week into next weekend. Some of this heavy rain may try to sneak into South Texas late next week and next weekend.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf remains quiet today and it appears that any sort of tropical development will not be a concern throughout this week.

The reason why it is quiet right now is due to an abundant amount of dust pushing across the Atlantic Basin, which is placing a cap on convection. Without any sort of organized areas of convection, tropical development will not happen. Another reason why tropical development is not expected this week is due to very strong amounts of wind shear which is occurring across much of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf.

It looks as if the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will not be as strong as previously forecast when it moves into the Caribbean and Gulf. Because of this, it will not have as much of an influence on development chances across the Caribbean and Gulf. Because of this, the chances of tropical development across the Atlantic Basin may remain very low right through next week as well.

That said, there is one area that may need to be watched next week for signs of possible tropical development.

The area that we may need to watch for signs of possible tropical development is in the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf as a piece of energy from the eastern Pacific is possibly pulled northward into the Bay of Campeche. Model guidance such as the ICON model and the European model seem to be pointing to the possibility of an area of disturbed weather to be in place over the Bay of Campeche by early next week. The GFS model also shows this possible disturbance, but given it’s been forecasting tropical development to occur for a couple of weeks now, it will not be considered into my forecast. The European ensemble model guidance does show about 25 percent chance for tropical development early next week in the Bay of Campeche.

Here Are My Thoughts: More than likely nothing will come from any area of disturbed weather that develops in the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf early next week. That said, there is, I think, a low chance (probably about a 10-20 percent chance) for perhaps a tropical depression to form in the Bay of Campeche as an area of disturbed weather tries to take advantage of the shape of the coastline of the Bay of Campeche and tries to spin up.

Either way, any tropical disturbance probably will be able to bring heavy rain and flooding to eastern Mexico during the first half of next week. It appears, for now, that a ridge of high pressure over the southeastern United States should be strong enough to push any tropical system inland into eastern Mexico rather than it being pulled northward towards the US Gulf Coast.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the rest of the Gulf, tropical development is not expected throughout this week right through probably all of next week. In fact, if nothing comes from the disturbance over the Bay of Campeche early next week, then we may not see any sort of tropical development throughout the rest of this month.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

All is quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf today and it is very likely that things will remain quiet through this weekend. In fact, tropical development probably will not be a concern right through next week across the entire Atlantic Basin.

One reason for the quietness across the Atlantic Basin are the very large outbreaks of Saharan dust that has been traversing across the Atlantic this week. This dust has helped to create a cap on the atmosphere leading to very little in the way of convection across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf.

Another very large area of Saharan dust is currently pushing its way across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic. This Saharan dust should reach Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean by about Monday and then progress into the Bahamas and the western and central Caribbean by the middle part of next week.

This Saharan dust is perfectly normal for this time of year and is usually something that does occur right through July.

One thing this Saharan dust will do is to keep things quiet across the Atlantic Basin right into next week. This Saharan dust will also probably put a cap on any widespread convection across much of the Atlantic Basin for the next few days.

Looking even further out, it’s still possible that increasing amounts of storminess could occur across the western Caribbean, Central America and the southern Gulf starting around next weekend and continuing through the week of June 16.

First off, ignore the GFS model and its forecasts of tropical storms and hurricanes in the 10 to 15 day time period. This is a known bias from the GFS model and unless other models agree with the other models, the forecasts from the GFS model should be ignored.

Looking at other data that is more accurate than the GFS model, it shows that most of the tropical development is likely to occur over the eastern Pacific over the next week or so. It does look like that some of the convection will seep over into the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf as we get into next weekend and beyond. It should also be noted that the European ensemble model guidance does show a 10-20 percent chance for tropical development to occur in the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf during the week of June 16.

It’s way too soon to really tell if western Caribbean and southern Gulf tropical development is going to be a growing concern or not.

One thing that is for sure is that all will be quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf this weekend through next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Low Pressure Will Bring Locally Heavy Rainfall From The Florida Peninsula Northward To The Coastal Carolinas The Next Couple Of Days: Satellite imagery and weather analysis indicates that a surface trough of low pressure currently extends across the Florida Peninsula. This trough is producing shower and thunderstorm activity across parts of South Florida, the northern Bahamas and now across southeastern Georgia.

It is expected that a low pressure system will form over eastern South Carolina on Thursday and then track into eastern North Carolina by Friday. It appears that this low pressure system will remain inland across eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina and because of this, tropical development is no longer expected (the chances were very low anyways).

What this low pressure system will do is bring additional locally heavy rainfall to much of the Florida Peninsula, coastal Georgia and coastal South Carolina the rest of today. This locally heavy rainfall will affect southeastern Georgia, eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina on Thursday. This heavy rainfall may produce localized flooding issues, especially in the Charleston Metro and the South Carolina Lowcountry where any flooding will be exacerbated at the time of high tide.

Forecast Additional Rainfall Amounts Through Thursday:

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Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean and The Gulf: The rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf will be quiet throughout the rest of this week right through at least this weekend.

Beyond this, the GFS model continues to display its early season bias of forecasting a hurricane in the western Caribbean and the Gulf in the 10-15 day time period. This is a known bias from the GFS model and unless other models agree with the other models, the forecasts from the GFS model should be ignored.

When we look at the other model guidance, they show any tropical development occurring over the eastern Pacific rather than the Caribbean or the Gulf over the next 10-15 days or so.

One thing that I did want to mention is that the European ensemble model guidance does show some members forecasting a system to cross over from the eastern Pacific to the Bay of Campeche late next week and next weekend. That said, only 20 percent of the ensemble members show this scenario.

While the scenario of a tropical system crossing from the eastern Pacific into the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf is a very low probability one right now, it should be noted that there may be a weakness in a high pressure ridge over the Gulf. If this occurs, it could allow any tropical systems over the eastern Pacific to be drawn northward across southern Mexico and into the Bay of Campeche late next week and next weekend.

Until then though, all looks to be quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Tropical Development Remains A Possibility Near The Carolinas Later This Week: It looks like there is a chance that we could see the development of a tropical depression or even a low end tropical storm late this week near the coast of the Carolinas. That said, the chances of tropical development occurring are low as of right now.

A weather disturbance located along a old frontal boundary is currently located in the area from South Florida into the northern Bahamas as of today. This weather disturbance is expected to continue to produce heavy rainfall in the form of showers and thunderstorms across South Florida and the Bahamas throughout the rest of today. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts of up to 6 inches can be expected across South Florida and across the northern and central Bahamas.

This weather disturbance is expected to lift northward and will be located near northeast Florida by Wednesday evening. This means that locally heavy rain can be expected on Wednesday across central and northern Florida with amounts of 1 to 3 inches expected.

As we get into Thursday, it is expected that a low pressure system will form right along the South Carolina coast. This low pressure system is then expected to track northeastward into southeastern and eastern North Carolina on Thursday night and Friday.

The greatest chance for any possible development looks to be from Thursday right through Friday. What needs to occur for development to happen is that the low pressure system will need to stay just offshore over or near the Gulf Stream. If that happens, then the chances are certainly there for tropical development to occur. On the other hand, if this low pressure system stays near or just inland across the Carolinas, then development likely would not occur.

Either way, this low pressure system will bring locally heavy rainfall across southeastern Georgia, southern South Carolina and southeastern and eastern North Carolina during Thursday into Friday. Up to 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is a possibility.

By Saturday, this low pressure system will be swept out into the open Atlantic as a cold front pushes eastward.

Even though the chances of tropical development are very low, I will still be keeping close tabs on this weather system. This means that I will keep you updated over the next couple of days or so.

Forecast Total Rainfall Amounts Through Saturday:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Tropical Development Is A Possibility Near The Carolinas Later This Week: A stationary frontal boundary that stretches from South Florida and the Bahamas northeastward to well offshore of the East Coast of the United States may become the focus for some sort of tropical development later this week.

Model guidance such as the GFS and the European model seem to be agreeing that a piece of energy will break off from the frontal boundary in a couple of days from now and head north and then northeastward reaching the South Carolina coast by Thursday where a low pressure system looks to form. Moisture, energy and convection associated with this low pressure system will combine with some convergence along the coast to help to possibly form a tropical system near the South Carolina and North Carolina coast by Thursday and Friday.

In addition, the European ensemble model guidance is showing upwards of a 20-25 percent chance for tropical development near the North and South Carolina coast late this week into this weekend.

Here Are My Thoughts: I do think that we will certainly see the development of a low pressure system near the South Carolina coast by Thursday that heads for coastal North Carolina by Friday. Any low pressure system should then track offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Saturday as an eastward moving cold front pushes it offshore.

In addition to this, there is the possibility, albeit a low one right now, that this low pressure system could become a short-lived tropical depression or low end tropical storm as it moves near or just barely offshore of the coasts of northeastern South Carolina and southeastern and eastern North Carolina later Thursday and Friday.

Any system, whether it becomes a tropical depression/tropical storm or not, is likely to bring squally weather to the immediate coasts of South Carolina and southeastern and eastern North Carolina on Thursday and Friday.

Before that though, squally weather connected to the stationary front will affect South Florida and the Bahamas the rest of today through Tuesday. The piece of energy that breaks off from the front and lifts northward is then expected to bring squally weather to eastern and northeast Florida and southeastern Georgia on Wednesday.

I will be keeping close tabs on this possible short-lived tropical development closely and will keep you updated, especially since it’s only a few days away and it’ll be in-close to the coast.

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Latest Update On The Very Low Possibility Of Western Caribbean Tropical Development Next Week Or So: One we get into next week and the week of June 16, an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will move into the Atlantic. This upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will help to foster stormier weather around Central America into the western Caribbean during next week into the weekend of June 14.

It’s still way too soon to really tell with any accuracy whether tropical development will occur over the western Caribbean from this storminess or not.

One thing that is definitely for sure is that you should ignore the GFS model’s constant forecast of a hurricane in the Gulf next week. This is a very common bias of the GFS model this time of year and it’s outlandish model forecasts for 10-15 days away should be ignored.

Other model guidance members such as the European model continues to forecast no tropical development in the western or northwestern Caribbean through the middle part of this month.

Here Are My Latest Thoughts: My thinking right now is that all of this week through this weekend will be quiet across the Gulf and the western Caribbean in terms of tropical development.

As we get into next week, the presence of an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation should help to produce squally and stormy weather across much of the western Caribbean that will also affect the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

It’s then possible (although an extremely low possibility right now) that we could see a tropical depression try to form over the western or northwestern Caribbean very late next week into the weekend of June 14-15.

This is something that still has my attention and is something that I will continue to keep a close eye on.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday, which will have the latest on the possibility of tropical development near the Carolina coastline later this week.

Things are expected to remain quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf through this weekend & no tropical development is expected. Analysis reveals that very strong wind shear values exists across the Gulf, the Caribbean and much of the Atlantic and this is a big reason why tropical development is not expected for at least the next several days.

Turning to next week and especially by later next week, it appears that stormy and squally weather will become commonplace across the western and northwestern Caribbean, including across much of the Yucatan Peninsula and across Belize. This squally weather may also affect western Cuba and the Cayman Islands by later next week.

One reason for this expected stormy weather has to do with an upper level trough of low pressure that will be located over the eastern United States this weekend into early next week. This trough of low pressure is expected to lift out to the northeast leaving behind a piece of energy and moisture over the northwestern Caribbean by later next week. This piece of energy will help to produce squally weather over the western and the northwestern Caribbean next week, but especially during late next week.

Eventually, we might see the development of a tropical system over the northwestern Caribbean around next weekend or so. That said, this is not a sure thing, but it is a possibility and is something that does need to be watched.

Latest Model Guidance: There continues to be some consensus in the model guidance that points to the possibility of tropical development occurring around next weekend or so. That said, some of the guidance are much more aggressive than others.

The GFS model guidance continues to consistently show the potential for tropical development over the northwestern Caribbean during next weekend. In fact, the last few forecast runs of the GFS model has been quite aggressive and strong with its forecast strength of this system. This is a bias of the GFS model where it can overstrengthen tropical systems & in the end, they are much weaker than what the model showed. That said, the GFS model does show some sort of a tropical system to track from the northwestern Caribbean next weekend to either into the eastern Gulf or near the Florida Peninsula during the first half of the week of June 9.

On the end of the spectrum, the Canadian model forecasts no development at all in the northwestern Caribbean.

The European model also doesn’t support the intensity of the tropical system that the GFS model shows. It does show, however, some sort of an area of disturbed weather to be located in the northwestern Caribbean next weekend into the first part of the week of June 9.

It should also be pointed out that both the GFS and the European models have a similar weather pattern setup for next weekend. Both models do show an upper level trough of low pressure to be located over the Gulf and the northwestern Caribbean next weekend. The reason why the GFS model seems to be forecasting a lot more disturbed weather to be present leading to a more favorable environment for development. Again, I do want to emphasize that the GFS model does have a bias towards overdoing the amount of disturbed weather that occurs and erroneously spinning up tropical systems in the western Caribbean. In the end, development usually is much slower to occur or it doesn’t occur at all.

The GFS ensemble model guidance and also the European ensemble model guidance both show members that forecast development in the northwestern Caribbean next weekend. Much like its operational counterpart, the GFS ensemble model guidance is quite aggressive with their forecast development. It should be pointed out that the European ensemble model guidance does show a 30-40 percent chance for tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean and the southern Gulf during the week of June 9.

Here Are My Latest Thoughts: First off, I am completely disregarding the GFS model in how it shows a strong tropical system next weekend into the week of June 9.

That being said, the GFS model has had a decent track record of sniffing out tropical development well ahead of any of the other models. This has occurred several times during the past two hurricane seasons, so the GFS model may be seeing something in terms of tropical development.

My thinking right now is that I think there is certainly a chance for a tropical disturbance to fester over the northwestern Caribbean starting during next weekend. It’s then possible (although a very low possibility right now) that we could see a tropical depression or a sloppy and disorganized tropical storm form over the northwestern Caribbean and the southern Gulf during the first part of the week of June 9.

This is something that still has my attention and is something that I will continue to keep a close eye on.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Things are expected to be quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf throughout the rest of this week right through this weekend & no tropical development is expected.

As we get into next week, it appears that things are expected to become more stormy across the western and northwestern Caribbean. The reason for this storminess is due in part to a westward moving tropical wave that’s currently located over the central Tropical Atlantic near 48 West Longitude. It is expected that this tropical wave will reach the western Caribbean by about the early part of next week. The energy and moisture from this tropical wave is expected to combine with a favorable background state from an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation.

At first, this combination will probably produce stormy and squally weather across the western and northwestern Caribbean throughout next week. This squally weather may also affect western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize during next week.

Eventually, we might see the development of a tropical system over the northwestern Caribbean between late next week and next weekend (between about June 5 and June 8). That said, this is not a sure thing, but it is a possibility and is something that does need to be watched.

Latest Model Guidance: There is a consensus in the model guidance that points to the possibility of tropical development occurring as soon as late next week.

The GFS model guidance is consistently showing the potential for tropical development to occur over the northwestern Caribbean as soon as late next week. The latest GFS model guidance continues to show this possible tropical development to occur in the northwestern Caribbean by next Friday and next Saturday. The GFS model then forecasts this tropical system to move into the southern and central Gulf by the following Monday and Tuesday (June 9 & 10).

The European model has been on and off with its forecast of tropical development. It does show a marked increase in stormy weather over the western and northwestern Caribbean to occur by next Tuesday and next Wednesday. The latest European model guidance forecast does show some minor tropical development to occur in the south-central Gulf around next Thursday and next Friday.

A look at the latest GFS ensemble reveals a marked increase in members that show tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean late next week. The GFS ensemble members then diverge with some members forecasting a track northwestward and westward towards the western Gulf while others show a track north or northeastward towards the eastern Gulf or towards Florida next weekend.

The European ensemble model guidance does show a few members forecasting development in the northwestern Caribbean very near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Most of these model members forecast a track west-northwestward towards the western Gulf next weekend.

The European ensemble model guidance also shows a 25-30 percent chance for tropical development in the far western Caribbean very near the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula later next week.

The latest European model weeklies is showing a 10-20 percent chance for a tropical storm to form between June 9 and June 15 in the southern and central Gulf.

Here Are My Thoughts As Of Late Tuesday Afternoon: I still think that the overall weather pattern for next week and the following week looks favorable for tropical development to occur in the western and the northwestern Caribbean. Whatever forms in the northwestern Caribbean would be pulled into the Gulf.

An upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to push eastward into the Gulf and the Caribbean during the first half of June. This upward motion pulse promotes rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity.

Right now, the environmental conditions across the Gulf and the Caribbean are highly unfavorable for tropical development. This is expected to reverse itself during the first week and more likely the second week of June as that upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation causes the monsoon trough to be pushed northward leading to a favorable environment across the western Caribbean. While these favorable environmental conditions does not guarantee a tropical system will form, there will certainly be an opportunity for something to develop as soon as late next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean.

FYI – The first name on the 2025 list is Andrea.

This is something that still has my attention and is something that I will be keeping a close eye on.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Weather analysis as of this afternoon indicated that all is quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf. Extremely strong wind shear values continues to affect all of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf & these very strong wind shear values are highly unfavorable for any sort of tropical development.

I did want to mention that there is an area of disturbed weather located over the far eastern Pacific to the south of the coast of southern Mexico. This area of disturbed weather is likely to develop into a tropical depression and probably the first tropical storm of the season in the eastern Pacific by the middle part of this week. It should be noted that this system will travel out into the open waters of the eastern Pacific and not be a threat to any land areas.

Tropical Development Is A Possibility During The Middle & Later Parts Of Next Week (June 4 To June 7) Over The Western & Northwestern Caribbean Into The Gulf: There is the possibility that tropical mischief could occur in the area from the western Caribbean into the Gulf during the first week of June. I want to explain why I think that this is a very real possibility.

Satellite imagery as of this afternoon indicated a tropical wave now located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic very near 30 West Longitude. This tropical wave lacks any sort of deep convection, but analysis reveals that there is some low-level spin evident with the tropical wave. For now, this tropical wave probably will not do anything in terms of development for the next several days or so.

It is expected that this tropical wave will move westward throughout this upcoming week through next weekend. This tropical wave should reach the western Caribbean by about early next week (around June 2 or 3) where it may need to be watched for possible tropical development.

The energy and moisture from that tropical wave may combine with a favorable background state for development from a upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation once it reaches the western Caribbean early next week. This combination could lead to favorable conditions for tropical development in the western Caribbean next week (June 2-7) & anything that tries to develop could be pushed into the Gulf.

Latest Model Guidance: The model guidance have been gradually trending towards increased chances for tropical development next week.

The GFS model does point to an area of disturbed weather to be located in the western and northwestern Caribbean by next Monday and the disturbed weather to gradually push into the southeastern Gulf and the up the East Coast of the United States by later next week.

The European model indicates the possibility of an area of disturbed weather to be located from the northwestern Caribbean northward into South Florida by the first half of next week (June 2-4). The European model then forecasts this disturbed weather to head northward across the eastern Gulf later next week.

A look at the GFS ensemble model guidance reveals an increase in members showing development across the northwestern Caribbean and the southern Gulf by the middle part of next week. The GFS ensemble members then diverge with some members forecasting a track northward towards the central Gulf Coast by about June 7 with other members forecasting a northeasterly track towards Florida and up the East Coast of the United States. Yet other ensemble members show a track westward towards the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf.

The European ensemble model guidance does show a few members forecasting development in the northwestern Caribbean into the eastern Gulf by the middle part of next week. Much like the GFS ensemble model, the European ensemble model members diverge in showing where any development might go. Some members show a track towards the central Gulf coast while others show this system remaining in the southern Gulf through late next week before slowly moving northward next weekend (June 7-8).

The European ensemble model guidance also shows a 20-25 percent chance for tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean later next week.

Here Are My Thoughts As Of Late Sunday Afternoon: I do think that the weather pattern over the next one to two weeks is certainly pointing towards tropical mischief to occur in the western Caribbean and the Gulf.

The weather pattern this coming week includes a strong upper level trough of low pressure to push into the eastern United States by late this week and will remain in place through next weekend.

That upper level trough of low pressure is expected to lift out of the eastern United States by the first half of next week, however, a piece of energy may be left behind over the southeastern Gulf and the northwestern Caribbean by the middle part of next week.

This piece of energy could combine with that westward moving tropical wave and the favorable background state of the Madden Julian Oscillation leading to the possibility of northwestern Caribbean tropical development around the middle and later parts of next week. This is something that certainly has my attention and is something that I will be keeping a close eye on.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Weather analysis as of late this afternoon indicated that there are no areas of concern in terms of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf. Extremely strong wind shear values can be found across the entire Gulf, much of the Atlantic and the eastern and central Caribbean. These very strong wind shear values are highly unfavorable for any sort of tropical development. One area of lower wind shear of 10 to 20 knots can be found across the southwestern Caribbean. Even so, there lacks any sort of deep convection across the southwestern Caribbean and because of this, tropical development is not expected there, even though the environmental conditions are favorable.

Tropical Development Remains A Possibility Between June 7 & June 14 From The Northwestern Caribbean Into The Gulf: It still appears that the rest of this month should be quiet in terms of tropical development chances as the overall environment looks unfavorable for tropical development.

Beyond this, it continues to look possible that an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will push through the Caribbean and the Atlantic beginning the last part of the first week of June. This upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation looks to reach its peak across the Caribbean and the Atlantic between June 7 and June 12.

This upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will inject moisture and energy into the atmosphere across the Caribbean, the Gulf and the Atlantic leading to a favorable background state fro tropical development.

Looking at the latest weather forecast guidance for early June shows no real outright signs of tropical development from either the GFS or the European models. Of course both models only go out to about June 5, which is just before when things begin to become favorable for tropical development.

As for the ensemble model guidance, the GFS ensemble model guidance does show some members forecasting tropical development to occur during the first week of June in the northwestern Caribbean. I do think that we’re seeing the typical model bias & that the better chances probably will wait until just after June 7.

The European ensemble model guidance does show some hints at tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean around June 4-5 with a couple of members pointing to that possibility.

The longer range European ensemble model guidance shows some pretty decent hints at tropical activity in the northwestern Caribbean with whatever forms moving into the Gulf between June 7 and June 14. In fact, the latest CFS model backs this up and shows a tropical system taking shape over the northwestern Caribbean as late as June 15 and taking a track through the Gulf on June 16 and 17 before making landfall along the central Gulf Coast on June 18.

Here Are My Thoughts As Of Wednesday Evening: Given everything that I have looked at, including the favorable look in terms of environmental conditions over the Caribbean and the Gulf after June 7 and also the first hints from the models showing tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean between June 7 and 14, I do think that the prospects of tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean is something that’ll need to be watched closely starting during the weekend of June 7-8 and continuing through the week of June 9.

While this is something that will certainly need to be watched closely once we get into early June, it’s nothing to be overly worried or concerned about, for now.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.