Major Hurricane Beryl: After peaking at an astounding 165 mph maximum winds this morning, it appears that some wind shear is beginning to impact the hurricane. This can be seen on satellite imagery with the deepest thunderstorm activity now being pushed to the east and southeast.
Analysis of environmental conditions reveals that the wind shear values seems to have increased to about 15-25 knots. I am hoping for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands sake that this increasing wind shear will cause a steady weakening of the hurricane. That said, I do think that Beryl will still be a very major hurricane when it impacts Jamaica during the day on Wednesday. I strongly urge everyone in Jamaica to prepare for a hurricane that produces upwards of 120-130 mph winds, a large storm surge and 6 to 12 inches of rain.
Beryl’s Forecast For Jamaica & The Cayman Islands: It looks very likely that Beryl will track to the west-northwest taking the eye of the hurricane very close to, if not right over the southern side of Jamaica. This means that major hurricane conditions are expected across all of Jamaica beginning very late tonight and continuing through the day on Wednesday. Up to 120 to 130 mph winds, a large storm surge and 6 to 12 inches of rain can be expected across Jamaica very late tonight through Wednesday.
As for the Cayman Islands, the track of Beryl looks to be potentially close enough so that the Cayman Islands are impacted by hurricane conditions, including winds of 80-100 mph on Wednesday night.
Beryl’s Forecast For The Yucatan Peninsula: It appears that the forecast track of Beryl has shifted a little further north across the Yucatan Peninsula as compared to what it looked like yesterday. One reason why is due to the rapid strengthening into a Category 5 hurricane causing it to gain some added latitude. Another reason has to do with the possibility of an upper level trough of low pressure to intensify over the central United States causing the high pressure ridge over the southern United States to weaken some.
Now, there is still uncertainty as to how much more latitude Beryl will gain over the next 2 to 3 days or so. If Beryl weakens quickly due to unfavorable environmental conditions on its approach to the Yucatan Peninsula, a steady west-northwest track from the area in-between Chetumal and Cozumel to near Campeche would occur.
On the other hand, should Beryl remain a strong hurricane right into the Yucatan Peninsula, it would probably begin to get tugged more northwestward leading to a track more towards the far northern Yucatan Peninsula.
At this point, I’m leaning more towards a track that takes Beryl onshore onto the eastern Yucatan Peninsula just south of Cozumel late Thursday night as a 80-90 mph hurricane and then tracking across the northern Yucatan Peninsula and exiting between Cozumel and Merida later Friday afternoon as a tropical storm.
Where Might Beryl Track In The Gulf Of Mexico & Who Might Be Affected: The forecast track of Beryl in the Gulf of Mexico is going to be reliant on the strength of the high pressure ridge and how far west it extends and also on an upper level trough of low pressure over the central United States. Also, how strong Beryl is in the Gulf of Mexico is also going to affect where it tracks. Lots of moving parts and unknowns are making for an uncertain track forecast this weekend.
The model guidance seems to have trended a bit towards an idea that the western end of the high pressure ridge may weaken and relent causing Beryl to turn more to the northwest as it approaches the coasts of eastern Mexico and South Texas.
At this point, I don’t think that we’ll see a sharp enough turn for Beryl to make it as far north as the Louisiana coast or the upper or even middle Texas coast. For that to occur, Beryl needs to strengthen significantly again in the Gulf of Mexico causing it to be pulled northward by that trough of low pressure.
Instead, my thinking is that we may see enough of a turn to the northwest that takes Beryl inland somewhere between Corpus Christi, Texas and the northeastern Mexican coast late Sunday. The environmental conditions look to be not all that favorable for robust strengthening, but instead perhaps slow strengthening as it crosses the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico from Friday night until Sunday. The intensity guidance seems to be in good agreement in forecasting Beryl to be a tropical storm when it comes ashore. That said, a borderline hurricane impact for south Texas and northeastern Mexico is well within the realm of possibilities.
My advice is to keep close tabs on the latest info with Beryl, especially if you are on the middle or lower Texas coast or in eastern and northeastern Mexico.
A Warning For Those Of You Heading To The Beach Along The Gulf Coast During The Fourth Of July Holiday Weekend: The large swells from Beryl are expected to reach most Gulf Coast beaches as soon as Thursday and Friday and continue right through all of this weekend. This will likely lead to a significant threat for rip currents across the entire Gulf Coast from Thursday through at least Sunday.
Please use extraordinary amounts of caution if you’re going to be on the beach this weekend. Even the strongest swimmers have drowned in rip currents, so it’s strongly advised to follow warning and caution notices. Rip currents can be extremely deceiving because the skies are going to be bright and sunny, the temperatures will be hot and the waves will not be overly huge. Except, the long period swells carry an enormous amount of energy with them leading to strong rip currents and a huge drowning risk.
Model Track Forecast:
Satellite Imagery: