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There Is The Slight Possibility Of Northern Gulf Tropical Development Late Next Week: Even though tropical development is not expected across The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf throughout this weekend into early next week, it seems as if we’re going to have to watch the northern Gulf for the possibility of tropical development during the later parts of next week.

A frontal boundary is expected to push into the southeastern United States during this weekend where it will stall out during next week. Eventually, an area of low pressure may split off from the tail end of that front and slip west-southwestward into the northern Gulf during the later parts of next week. This low pressure system may then need to be watched for signs of tropical development, although there is uncertainty as to whether development would actually occur.

The uncertainty lies with how far offshore this low pressure system will be positioned. If it remains over the northern Gulf, then there’s a distinct possibility for development. On the other hand, if this low pressure system rides along the coast of the northern Gulf or is inland over the northern Gulf coast, then development would not occur.

Latest Model Guidance: The model guidance continues to be pretty ho-hum in their forecast for tropical development.

The GFS model barely shows a weak low pressure system over the northern Gulf later next week & my takeaway from it is that tropical development probably wouldn’t occur.

The European model seemingly doesn’t show any signs of a low pressure system or tropical development in the northern Gulf.

The GFS ensemble model guidance does show a few members forecasting signs of development over the northeastern Gulf during late next week. Beyond that, the ensemble members split on what they want to do with this system. Some members forecast a track immediately northward into southern Alabama or the Florida Panhandle. Other members forecast a westward track towards the middle and upper Texas coast or southwestern Louisiana.

The European ensemble model, on the other hand, shows no members forecasting any sort of signs of development.

My Takeaway From This Is That while there is certainly a possibility of tropical development in the northern Gulf during late next week, the chances of it to actually occur remain very low. There are too many uncertainties in terms of how much wind shear might be present and how much land interaction there could be for me to be too terribly concerned about development. As I mentioned a couple of days ago, I think that there’s probably a higher chance that nothing comes of it due to land interaction.

For now, I’ll continue to keep a close eye on this possibility and will have more updates as needed.

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An Uptick In Tropical Development Chances Are Possible Near The End Of This Month Into The First Half Of August: The overall weather pattern across the Atlantic Basin may shift in a way to allow for more favorable conditions for tropical development starting near the end of this month and continuing into the first half of August.

An upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to push into the Atlantic Basin during late July and early August. This will shift the background state of the tropical Atlantic from widespread unfavorable conditions due to sinking air to a more favorable environment for development due to rising air over a large part of the Atlantic.

The various model guidance supports this idea of a favorable phase for development being in place over the Atlantic during the first half of August. Furthermore, model guidance seems to be suggesting that the amount of wind shear over the Caribbean will decrease substantially by early August leading to widespread favorable conditions for development.

This is something that I’m definitely going to be keeping a close eye on, but as of right now, there are no clear cut areas of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf to zero in on. Instead, we are seeing the potential for favorable conditions for tropical development over a large part of the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf starting in about 2-1/2 weeks from now and continuing into the first half of August.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Overall, the rest of this week through this weekend looks quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf with no tropical development expected.

Turning to next week, there is the possibility that there could be some sort of tropical mischief over the northern Gulf during the middle and later parts of next week. The weather setup next week that could cause this to occur is connected to a piece of energy breaking off this weekend from a stationary frontal boundary that’ll be positioned along and offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. This piece of energy could push southwestward reaching the northeastern Gulf around the middle part of next week and the north-central Gulf during the later parts of next week.

There is uncertainty as to how far offshore of the northern Gulf coast this piece of energy will be during the second half of next week. If it tracks over the very warm waters of the northern Gulf, then there’s going to be a legitimate chance for development. On the other hand, if the piece of energy stays right along the coast or just inland across the northern Gulf coast, then development would not occur due to land interaction.

As for the latest model guidance, the GFS model seems to be showing a tropical depression forming in the north-central Gulf around next Wednesday and then tracking westward reaching the southwest Louisiana and upper Texas coast around next Friday as a depression.

The latest European model guidance doesn’t forecast any sort of development, likely due to land interaction. The Canadian model is the same way, in that it shows no development due to land interaction.

The GFS ensemble model guidance does have a couple of members that do show development in the northern Gulf late next week. Overall, the chances from the GFS ensembles are very low.

The European ensemble model guidance is even quieter than the GFS ensemble model & only shows a couple of members forecasting development right along the northeast Gulf coast. The chances from the European ensemble model guidance are nearly zero now.

At this point, I think that while there is certainly a possibility of tropical development in the northern Gulf during the second half of next week, the chances for it to occur are very low. I think that there’s probably a higher chance that nothing comes of it due to land interaction. Either way, I’ll be keeping an eye on things and will have updates as needed.

Finally – There are some subtle signals in the data that activity may begin picking up across the Atlantic Basin near the end of this month into the first half of August. An upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to make its way into the Atlantic during this time period, which would invigorate activity.

The extremely long range model guidance are actually beginning to show this possible uptick in activity. The European ensemble model guidance shows upwards of a 20-30 percent chance for tropical development in the area of the tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. The CFS model, for what it’s worth, shows several robust tropical disturbances moving westward off of the coast of Africa towards the eastern Caribbean and then towards either the Bahamas or the Gulf beginning during the last week of this month and continuing through the first 10 days of August.

For now, this is something to just keep an eye on, but it’s certainly nothing to be concerned or worried about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Remnants Of Chantal: The remnants of Chantal are moving across southern and eastern Virginia today and are expected to push off of the Mid-Atlantic coast by tonight. The remnants of Chantal will then move east-northeastward out into the open Atlantic as we get into Tuesday and we will be able to close the books on this storm.

The remnants of Chantal will continue to produce heavy rainfall across the Mid-Atlantic states throughout the rest of today. The highest potential for flooding exists across Maryland and Delaware into southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey.

Further south across central North Carolina, even though the heavy rainfall associated with Chantal is now done, it did produce some extremely heavy rainfall totals of up to one foot across areas west of Fayetteville and Raleigh-Durham last night. The Haw River near Bynum reached major flood stage shortly before 5 AM ET Monday and then broke the record water level from Hurricane Fran with a peak river level of 22.08 feet.

The Eno River at Durham also appears to have broken its record from Hurricane Fran by about 2 feet with a peak river level of 25.63 feet.

Both rivers are now beginning to recede and will likely fall back to below flood stage by later today or on Tuesday.

This will be the last update on Chantal.

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Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: There are a couple of areas that I wanted to mention as they did catch my attention.

The First Area That I Wanted To Mention Is a surface trough of low pressure located just north of the Turks and Caicos Islands. This trough of low pressure is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity and there are a few reasons why it caught my attention.

The first reason is that the wind shear values over this trough of low pressure are only between 5 and 15 knots, which is favorable for development.

The second reason is that there is actually some low and mid level spin associated with this system and I do think this is something that should be watched, in case it does try to spin-up into a low pressure system.

While most of the model guidance really doesn’t forecast development of this trough of low pressure, it should be noted that the European ensemble model guidance does forecast a 30 percent chance for tropical development by the time this system reaches near the North Carolina coast later this week into this weekend.

While I’m not expecting any sort of immediate tropical development from the area of showers and thunderstorms north of the Turks and Caicos, it is something that I will be keeping an eye on, just in case. All-in-all though, I think the chances for development look fairly low.

The Second Area I Wanted To Mention Is the possibility that we could see some sort of tropical development over the northern Gulf around the middle and later parts of next week. A very similar weather setup looks to occur as we just saw with Chantal as a frontal boundary stalls out over the northern Gulf and tries to spin up a tropical system near the tail end of the front.

As for the model guidance, the GFS ensemble model guidance does show a few members forecasting some development occurring over the northern Gulf around the middle and later parts of next week.

As for the European ensemble model guidance, there are only two ensemble members that show development in the northern Gulf around the middle part of next week. It should be noted that the European ensemble model guidance is forecast about a 10-15 percent chance for development in the northern Gulf during the second half of next week.

At this point, I think that there is certainly the possibility for tropical development in the northern Gulf during the second half of next week. That said, the chances for it to occur are quite low right now. For now, this is something to just keep an eye on, just in case & is nothing to be worried or concerned about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday.

Tropical Depression Chantal: Chantal made landfall early this morning near Myrtle Beach as a 50-60 mph tropical storm. As the storm made landfall, it did produce wind gusts of between 45 and 55 mph along the coast between Bald Head Island, North Carolina and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

The center of Chantal is now inland and is located near the North and South Carolina border. Chantal will continue to weaken through Monday and will likely be a remnant tropical system by the time it pushes back offshore off of the Delmarva Peninsula later Monday. Chantal will then track just southeast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts during the day on Tuesday and then out into the open Atlantic.

The main threat from Chantal will now be heavy rainfall across the Piedmont of North Carolina this afternoon into tonight, including Raleigh-Durham, Fayetteville and Goldsboro. Rain totals of 1 to 4 inches can be expected across the Piedmont of North Carolina, which will lead to the threat of flooding. Elsewhere, rain totals of less than one inch can be expected across central and southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina this afternoon and tonight.

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Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf: Once Chantal pushes off of the Delmarva Peninsula late Monday, all will turn quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf throughout this coming week & no tropical development is expected.

Turning to next week (week of July 14), some of the model guidance is showing the possibility of some sort of tropical mischief over the northeastern Gulf coast as a frontal boundary stalls out there.

Right now, only the GFS model hints at this possible development during the middle and later parts of next. As for the other model guidance, only 1 or 2 members of both the GFS ensemble and European ensemble model guidance show development. It should be noted that the European ensemble model guidance does show a 15-20 percent chance for development in the northeast Gulf.

For now, this is something to just keep an eye on, just in case & is nothing to be worried or concerned about.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

Tropical Storm Chantal: Tropical Depression #3 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Chantal this morning.

Satellite imagery and other weather analysis indicates that Chantal is much more organized this morning as compared to what it looked like yesterday. The center of Chantal is located on the western end of the deepest convection with most of the thunderstorm activity occurring to the east of the center. Bursts of new deep thunderstorm activity is occurring as I write this.

Analysis indicates that there is low amounts of wind shear occurring right over the center of Chantal and this means that the environmental conditions are favorable for some additional strengthening the rest of today. It would not surprise me at all to see Chantal peak at 55-60 mph before it comes onshore along the northeastern South Carolina coast by Sunday morning.

Squalls of heavy rain and gusty winds will likely begin affecting the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts by late this afternoon and certainly by tonight. These squalls will then continue through Sunday. Given that most of the squalls are located on the eastern side of the storm, the most robust squalls will likely to affect coastal areas of northeastern South Carolina and all of coastal southeastern and eastern North Carolina throughout tonight and Sunday. Wind gusts of up to 50-60 mph and rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches can be expected in an area from about Myrtle Beach through all of coastal southeastern North Carolina to the southern parts of the outer banks of North Carolina.

Forecast Impacts:
Wind:

Rainfall:

Storm Surge:

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.

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Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the area of disturbed weather located east of the coast of northeast Florida have found a increasingly more organized system. They also have found a system with 30-35 mph maximum winds and because of this, Invest 92-L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression #3.

Additional strengthening is likely and I fully expect to see this system become a tropical storm as soon as later tonight or during the day on Saturday. Once the depression is upgraded to a tropical storm, it’s name will be Chantal.

TD 3 is expected to gradually move north and northwestward during later tonight and during the day on Saturday. TD 3 is expected to come ashore along the coast of South Carolina as a 40-50 mph tropical storm late Saturday night or during Sunday morning.

Even though it will be a tropical storm, the main effects from this system will be heavy rainfall, which will affect the coastal Carolinas throughout Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall totals of up to 2 to 4 inches can be expected across eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.

That said, some 40-50 mph wind gusts can be expected on Saturday night into Sunday morning across coastal parts of northeast South Carolina and parts of coastal southeast and eastern North Carolina.

Next Full Discussion Will Be Sent Out on Saturday.

Invest 92-L Located About 100 Miles Offshore Of The Coast Of Northeast Florida: It looks like we have a developing tropical system off of the northeast Florida coast today. In fact, I think the chances are high that Invest 92-L will be a tropical storm by the time it comes ashore along the South Carolina coast on Sunday.

The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located offshore of the northeast Florida coast are becoming more concentrated today. This low pressure system has been designated Invest 92-L by the National Hurricane Center. It will be interesting to see what the hurricane hunters find when they fly in and investigate this system this afternoon.

Analysis of environmental conditions reveals that the wind shear values are marginally favorable for development and strengthening of Invest 92-L. Because of this, I think the ceiling of intensification is pretty low, but I also think that it is likely that it will probably strengthen into a tropical storm probably either later tonight or during the day on Saturday.

A look at the track model guidance indicates that most of the guidance forecast Invest 92-L to come ashore along the South Carolina coastline between about Hilton Head and Charleston on Sunday morning. As for intensity, most of the guidance point to Invest 92-L peaking at somewhere between a 35 mph tropical depression and a 45 mph tropical storm.

I also wanted to mention that the model guidance forecasts that Invest 92-L may reemerge off of the North Carolina or Virginia coastlines on Tuesday and then head northeastward tracking either very near Cape Cod, Massachusetts or offshore of southeastern New England around Wednesday where some of intensity guidance forecasts re-intensification into a tropical storm.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think that it is very likely that Invest 92-L will strengthen to a low-end tropical storm with perhaps 40-45 mph winds probably during the day on Saturday. Given how solid it looks on satellite imagery, I definitely can see how it will become a tropical storm sooner rather than later.

I then expect Invest 92-L to come ashore along the South Carolina coast very near Charleston either during later Saturday night or during Sunday morning as a tropical storm with 40-45 mph winds.

The main threat from this system will be heavy rainfall, first across the Florida Peninsula today and then across the coastal Carolinas throughout Saturday and Sunday.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected throughout the rest of today along Florida’s west and southwest coasts, as well as along the I-4 corridor from Tampa through Orlando & also across Florida’s Space Coast.

Turning to the coastal Carolinas, locally heavy rain is expected throughout Saturday and Sunday, especially across northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina where 2 to 4 inches of rain can be expected.

Further north, parts of Southern New England might need to be watched for possible locally heavy rainfall around the middle part of next week as whatever is left of this system passes near or to the east of Southern New England.

Finally, rip currents will be a threat along the coast from eastern and northeastern Florida northward through the coastal Carolinas throughout this weekend.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

Forecast Additional Rainfall Amounts Today:

Forecast Rainfall Amounts From Saturday Through Monday:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.

Tropical Development Is Looking Likely This Weekend Near The Coasts Of Northeast Florida, Southeast Georgia & Eastern South Carolina: Weather analysis at the time of this writing indicated that there is a frontal boundary that stretches from the Carolinas to the Gulf Coast. This front is expected to push offshore and be located from off of the Carolinas to the northern Gulf by Friday.

I think that it is looking likely that we will see a tropical depression or even a low-end tropical storm spin up near the coastal parts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia or eastern South Carolina as this front decays during this weekend.

Satellite imagery right now shows that most of the shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring just offshore of the Carolina coastline to just east of the Space Coast of Florida. At this time, there are no areas that are showing any sort of low or mid-level circulation, but analysis of wind shear values indicates that the wind shear is low enough to support development all along the Southeast coast of the United States.

While immediate tropical development is not expected over the next day or so, the environment does look to favor development this weekend from coastal northeast Florida to the coastal Carolinas.

Latest Model Guidance: The model guidance are in good agreement in forecasting tropical development to occur just barely offshore of coastal Georgia and the Carolinas during this weekend. This model agreement includes both the GFS and European model, as well as their ensemble model counterparts. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance is now forecasting a 90 percent chance of tropical development and a 30-40 percent chance of this system becoming a tropical storm just offshore of coastal northeast Florida, coastal Georgia and coastal South Carolina.

As for a track, the GFS ensemble model guidance seem to agree on a northeasterly track with most members taking this system near the North Carolina coast around Monday and then fairly offshore of the New England coast by about the middle part of next week.

A large majority of the European ensemble model guidance seem to be further west of the GFS ensemble model and take this system right over eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina on Sunday and Monday. Beyond this, the European ensemble model guidance forecast this system to curve to the northeast and pass to east of New England, although there are a couple of members that do forecast a track right over southeastern New England on Tuesday.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I already mentioned, I think that it is likely we will see the development of a tropical depression or a low-end tropical storm during this weekend near coastal parts of northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. In fact, I am putting the chances for at around 80-90 percent.

This tropical system, which again looks to probably end up being a tropical depression or perhaps a low-end tropical storm, should track northward into the coastal Carolinas by later Sunday into Monday. A curve to the northeast looks most plausible early next week taking this system to the east of New England. I’m not buying into the possibility of this system directly affecting Southern New England and think it should pass to the east.

Heavy Rainfall Will Be The Main Threat With This System: Heavy rainfall is going to be a threat throughout the Fourth of July weekend across much of the Florida Peninsula & particularly along the west coast of Florida and along the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando.

The heaviest rain in the form of showers and thunderstorms throughout the rest of today looks to occur along the west and southwest coasts of Florida, especially from Tampa and points south.

Turning to Friday, the environment will be favorable for widespread showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall across much of the Florida Peninsula. The area of most concern will be right along the entire I-4 corridor from Tampa through Orlando to Daytona Beach where over 3 inches of additional rainfall is expected.

Turning to Saturday and Sunday, the heavy rainfall looks to shift to the coastal areas of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina as that tropical depression or low-end tropical storm takes shape. Upwards of 2 to 5 inches of rainfall looks possible, especially across coastal South Carolina and coastal North Carolina.

Heavy rain also looks to continue along Florida’s I-4 corridor on Saturday with an additional 1 to 2 inches expected.

The heavy rainfall during the next few days across the Florida Peninsula and particularly along the west coast of Florida and along the I-4 corridor will lead to localized areas of flooding with urban areas and low-lying areas most vulnerable.

Forecast Total Rainfall Amounts The Next Few Days:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.

Tropical Development Looks Possible Near The Coasts Of Northeast Florida, Southeast Georgia & Eastern South Carolina This Weekend: The latest weather analysis as of today indicated that there is a weakening cold front pushing southward into the Carolinas and parts of the Deep South. This cold front is expected to continue weakening as it pushes into the area from the northern Gulf eastward to across Florida and into the southwestern North Atlantic as we get into Thursday and Friday. It is quite possible that we could see a tropical depression or a tropical storm spin up from this front this weekend near the coastal parts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia or eastern South Carolina.

A look at satellite imagery right now indicated that there seems to be two areas of convection to watch. The first area is located over the northeastern Gulf where convection has persisted since yesterday. The wind shear values over this convection are favorable for development, however, any associated spin is disconnected from the convection. The second area of convection looks more frontal and is likely connected to the approaching front. This convection stretches from the northernmost Bahamas northeastward to off of the Carolina coastline. All-in-all, both areas of convection are not expected to develop immediately.

Latest Model Guidance: The model guidance have begun to hone in on the more possible area to watch for development this weekend as they now seem to agree that the area between near the coast of northeast Florida and near the Carolina coastline is the spot to watch.

A majority of the GFS ensemble model guidance members that do show development forecast this system to form near the coasts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina during this weekend. The ensemble model guidance members then show any system to head northeastward and stay well east of New England during the first half of next week.

The latest European ensemble model guidance agrees with the GFS ensemble model guidance in that most of its members show development occurring very near coastal parts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina during this weekend. Most of the ensemble members show any system to head north and northwestward towards the coastal Carolinas by early next week. The European ensemble model guidance also is forecasting up to a 60 percent chance of tropical development near coastal parts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina during this weekend.

Here Are My Thoughts: Based on all of the data available, I think that the area to keep a close eye on is near coastal parts of northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina where the development chances are increasing for this weekend. As I have mentioned in previous discussions, old fronts sitting over the warm waters of the southwestern North Atlantic are ripe for producing spin-up tropical systems and this is exactly what I think will occur this coming weekend.

I think the chance for the development of a tropical depression or a low end tropical storm are at around 65 percent during this weekend near the coasts of northeast Florida, southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina. Any system would probably then be pulled northward towards the coastal Carolinas during the early part of next week.

Heavy Rainfall Threat Concentrated Across Parts Of The Florida Peninsula: Heavy rainfall is going to be a threat the next several days, including during the entire Fourth of July weekend, across much of the Florida Peninsula & particularly along the west coast of Florida and along the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando.

The heavy rain threat looks to develop on Thursday in the form of showers and thunderstorms across a large part of the Florida Peninsula with the highest amounts occurring along Florida’s west coast. The heavy rainfall will likely produce local areas of flooding in urban environments and low-lying areas. Street, highway and small stream flooding is also possible.

Turning to the Fourth of July holiday weekend – The combination of tropical moisture, an unstable air mass and forcing from the developing system near the southeastern coast of the US will lead to the threat for heavy rainfall across a large part of the Florida Peninsula. As I already mentioned, the west coast of Florida and areas near the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando will see the heaviest rainfall amounts this weekend. This heavy rainfall will lead to localized areas of flooding with urban areas and low-lying areas most vulnerable.

Forecast Total Rainfall Totals From Thursday To Monday:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.