Tropical Wave Moving Off Of Africa On Sunday Has A Chance To Develop Next Week As It Heads Westward Across The Eastern & Central Tropical Atlantic: It is expected that a tropical wave will push off of the west coast of Africa in a couple of days from now and then head westward across the eastern and then the central Tropical Atlantic during next week. There is some possibility that this tropical wave could try to develop into a tropical system as it heads westward next week.
A look at the model guidance reveals that while models such as the GFS model, the Canadian model and the European model do show this system development, they forecast very different scenarios with this system.
The GFS model, on one hand, forecasts that this system will strengthen significantly next week into probably a hurricane that ends up turning out into the open Atlantic along about 35-40 West Longitude.
The Canadian model forecasts minimal development near the Cape Verde Islands, however, that is short-lived and this wave falls apart as it heads westward and never develops again.
The European model forecasts some development from this wave as it heads across the eastern Tropical Atlantic during the middle part of next week. Beyond this, the European model forecasts little additional development and ends up forecasting this wave to fall apart well east of the Lesser Antilles next weekend.
A look at the ensemble guidance reveals that while there is some decent support for some development of a depression or a low-end tropical storm in the eastern Tropical Atlantic next week, its development is fairly short-lived and none of the ensemble members show any sort of threat to the Lesser Antilles or the eastern Caribbean.
Here Are My Thoughts: While I do think that some development of the this wave is possible next week as it heads westward across the eastern Tropical Atlantic, I think the chances of any significant development are very low. The reason why I think this is because the overall background state is quite hostile towards any sort of development.
This means that a short-lived depression or low-end tropical storm over the eastern Tropical Atlantic seems possible that ends up weakening and dissipating well before it reaches the Lesser Antilles.
There is nothing in the data, at this time, that supports any sort of a threat from this wave.
Frontal System Along East Coast Of The US Should Be Watched For Tropical Mischief Next Week: One thing that I continue to keep an eye on is the possibility of some sort of tropical mischief occurring near the tail end of the frontal boundary that’s been draped offshore of the Southeast coast of the United States. Old fronts like this can be a source of tropical development as low pressures tend to spin up near the frontal convergence & then try to develop into a tropical system.
The model guidance, as a whole, seems somewhat onboard with the possibility of in-close development near the US Southeast coast during the first half of next week. That said, as usual, there are differences in the model guidance on what occurs with any low pressure system that develops.
The GFS model shows a very strung out and weak low pressure system that never gets its act together offshore of the East Coast between Sunday and Tuesday.
The Canadian model also shows very little in the way of development from any weak low pressure systems that ride along the front offshore of the US East Coast next week.
The European model also shows some weak low pressure systems that never gets their act together off of the East Coast of the US next week.
The story looks much different when we look at the ensemble guidance as they seem a little more interested in showing tropical mischief along this front.
The GFS ensemble model guidance shows a clustering of members showing development just north of the Bahamas early next week. The members that do show development forecast any system will take off to the northeast and stay just offshore of the East Coast and head for Atlantic Canada.
A look at the European ensemble model guidance reveals that there are a few members that show development just north of the Bahamas around Tuesday or Wednesday with the members that do show development forecasting a track taking this system to the northeast just offshore of the East Coast and towards Atlantic Canada. It should be noted that the European ensemble model guidance does show about a 20-25 percent chance for development during the first half of next week just north of the Bahamas.
Here Are My Thoughts: While I’m going to be keeping a very close eye on whatever low pressure system that tries to form along the front, I think that the chances of tropical development are fairly low, as of right now.
More likely than not, any low pressure systems should remain non-tropical. That being said, the ocean waters in the area north of the Bahamas are very warm & it wouldn’t take much for a low pressure system to become a tropical system, especially if it hangs around and festers. All-in-all, I’m not ruling out tropical mischief near the Southeast coast of the United States next week, but I also think the chances right now are low.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.