An area of low pressure is expected to develop offshore of the North Carolina coast by about Wednesday. This low pressure system is expected to get blocked by a big high pressure system over northern New England and Atlantic Canada. This will cause the low pressure system to be pulled westward towards the Mid-Atlantic coast and Southern New England by late this week and this weekend. Additionally, it is expected that this low pressure system will strengthen as it moves over some very warm waters of the Gulf Stream late this week & there is even a small chance that it could try to become a sub-tropical storm.

It should be noted that the exact track of this low pressure system is still uncertain. The various model guidance have some very different potential outcomes ranging from a track that keeps this low pressure system well offshore to a track that brings this storm system very close to the Southern New England and upper Mid-Atlantic coast by this weekend. That being said, the pressure gradient between the strong high pressure system over northern New England and this storm system will lead to some very gusty onshore winds & rough seas to occur from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to New England from Thursday through this weekend. This, in turn, could lead to a prolonged period where winds will gust to over 40 mph and cause multiple cycles of coastal flooding and coastal beach erosion. In addition, periods of heavy rain are possible across the Mid-Atlantic states and across Southern New England late this week and this weekend, depending on the exact track of this low pressure system.

At this point, it’s more likely than not that this low pressure system will probably stay non-tropical. That being said, there is a small chance that this low pressure system could become a sub-tropical storm or even a tropical storm. Given the fact that it will be moving very slowly over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream, it’s possible that these very warm waters could help to transition this storm from a non-tropical one into one that’s a sub-tropical or even a tropical storm. Either way, the impacts later this week and this week across the Mid-Atlantic States and Southern New England will be the same, whether it’s a non-tropical storm or a tropical storm.

Bottom Line Is That this storm is going to bring the following late this week and this weekend:

– Heavy rain with amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible across parts of Southern New England across the upper Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into this weekend.

– Very gusty onshore winds are expected across coastal Southern New England and across the coastal Mid-Atlantic states. Wind gusts of over 40 mph are quite possible late this week through this weekend.

– Coastal flooding and beach erosion is very likely across multiple high-tide cycles late this week through this weekend across the Mid-Atlantic coast and across coastal Southern New England.

All interests across Southern New England, Long Island and across the Mid-Atlantic states should closely monitor the forecasts surrounding this coastal storm as changes to the forecast are not only possible, but quite likely.