There are signals in the weather data that suggests a robust coastal storm could form off of the North Carolina coast by about the middle part of next week. This low pressure system looks to form along a stalled frontal boundary that’ll be positioned off of the US East Coast. Not only could we see a robust low pressure system form next week off of the North Carolina coast, it could also try to become a subtropical or tropical storm. Any storm system, whether its tropical or non-tropical will produce some very gusty winds, high surf and coastal flooding to much of the Mid-Atlantic coastline and along the coast of the Carolinas throughout next week.

A look at the most recent weather model guidance reveals that they are not only showing the development of a low pressure system, but they seem to suggest it’ll transform into a tropical storm towards the later parts of next week. The Google Deep Mind ensemble model is showing a 30 percent chance of this low pressure system becoming a tropical storm around the middle part of next week near the North Carolina coast. A look at the European ensemble model guidance shows about a 40 percent chance for the low pressure system to become a tropical storm around the middle part of next week.

Here Are My Thoughts: At the very least, I do think that we’ll see a robust low pressure system form along that frontal boundary near the North Carolina coast. This should occur by around Monday or Tuesday. There is expected to be a tight pressure gradient between this low pressure system and a strong high pressure system located over the northeastern United States. This will lead to several days next week of very gusty onshore winds, high surf and coastal flooding along the entire Mid-Atlantic coast and along the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina.

It should be noted that any low pressure system that does form is expected to remain nearly stationary near the North Carolina coast putting it over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream. This could lead to this low pressure system to transition into either a sub-tropical storm or a tropical storm during the middle and later parts of next week. This will be something that I’ll be keeping close tabs on.

Either way, this storm system is very likely to bring coastal issues from gusty onshore winds to beach erosion and coastal flooding from coastal New Jersey southward to the coastal Carolinas throughout next week. All interests along the Mid-Atlantic and Carolina coastlines will need to monitor this storm system very closely.