First up today, I continue to keep close tabs on an area of low pressure that’s located over the central North Atlantic about 450 miles to the east of Bermuda. Satellite imagery indicates that the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this low pressure system is quite disorganized. Because of this, it is likely that it will take some time for this low pressure system to become a tropical system, if it ever does.

A look at the latest model guidance reveals that guidance such as the Google Deep Mind model and the European AIFS model insists that there is, at least, a chance for this system to develop by this weekend. Most of the ensemble members do show a track that would keep this system out in the open Atlantic just east of Bermuda. It should be noted that the Google Deep Mind model does show a 45 percent chance for tropical development by this weekend.

Meanwhile, the traditional models such as the GFS model and the European model forecast no development at all from this low pressure system. In fact, the European ensemble model guidance only gives this system a 10 percent chance of developing into a tropical system over the next few days.

While I continue to lean more towards the idea that we might see this system try to develop this weekend, it’s not a sure thing at all. Because of this, it’s equally as possible that we see no development at all.

Finally, even if we do see tropical development over the central North Atlantic to the east and southeast of Bermuda, it will pose no threat to the United States or the Caribbean. We might have to watch this system’s proximity to Bermuda as it could pose some threat to the island towards the middle part of next week.

Late September & Early October Tropical Development Is Possible In The Gulf: There continues to be signs that the Gulf might be an area to really watch for possible tropical development during the late September and early October time frame.

The catalyst for this possible tropical development looks to be the Central American Gyre or CAG, which is a large area of spin and storminess. This CAG may develop by the end of this month in the area from the eastern Pacific through Central America and into the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf.

This CAG could help to spin up a tropical system in either the eastern Pacific or in the Gulf and western Caribbean by late September into early October. It is definitely something to keep an eye on going forward.

A look at the model guidance for the end of the month reveals that many of the guidance members do show hints of tropical development to occur in the Gulf.

The Google Deep Mind ensemble model does show the southern Gulf getting active with increasing development chances as soon as late next week. It then shows things remaining active in terms of tropical development chances right through the week of September 28. That said, the model only puts the chances of tropical development at between 10 and 20 percent, so not high odds right now.

Meanwhile, the traditional models such as the European model seems to suggest that the Gulf tropical development could occur from a system crossing over from the eastern Pacific during the final weekend of September.

Digging a little further into the data reveals that the weather pattern during the period between September 23 and September 30 could feature a big upper level high pressure system over southern Canada and into the Great Lakes. This pattern could lead to lowering barometric pressures and storminess to occur over the Gulf & thus, I think tropical development in the Gulf is at least somewhat possible between about September 25 and October 5.

For now, the idea of tropical development in the Gulf is just something to keep an eye on, but is nothing to be overly concerned or worried about.