All is quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf with no areas of interest today. Indications seem to point towards a very quiet weekend across the tropics with no tropical development expected. In fact, no tropical development is highly likely through next week across the Gulf, the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic.

One area that might need to be watched for possible tropical development late next week is across the central North Atlantic well east of Bermuda where model guidance such as the Google Deep Mind and European AIFS models are showing possible development. Right now, these model guidance members are forecasting the chances for development at about 20 to 30 percent or so late next week in the area of the North Atlantic that’s well to the east of Bermuda. If we do see something form in this area of the Atlantic then it would be of no threat to any land areas.

Looking way ahead in time, it’s possible that we might have to watch the Gulf for the possibility of tropical development between about September 25 and October 5. The very long range European model guidance is forecasting a weather pattern that might promote tropical mischief in the Gulf during this time period. It is also showing upwards of a 10-20 percent chance of tropical development during this time period. Not very high in terms of development chances, but it is showing this might be an area to watch. It should also be noted that the CFS model is also showing a weather pattern that could promote tropical mischief in the Gulf during the same time period as the European model. For now, I certainly wouldn’t worry or stress about this, but instead keep an eye on things, just in case.

Finally, I know some of you have seen the longer range GFS model & it’s forecasts of a big hurricane in the Gulf in about 10-14 days from now. These GFS model forecasts have translated into click-bait posts on social media. I’m here to inform you to ignore both the GFS model’s big hurricane forecasts & those click-bait social media posts. The GFS model is notorious for spitting out “phantom” storms. It does the same thing every single year in showing big hurricanes that never come to pass. What should you do instead, keep up-to-date with me & my email posts. Also, if other models such as the European model or even the Google Deep Mind model start showing something similar, then we might have to start looking at it closely. Until then, ignore all big hurricane forecasts from the GFS model & also ignore the social media hype posts.