Things are quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf with no areas of interest today. It appears likely that no tropical development will occur across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf throughout this week.

A look at the Atlantic reveals that the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic are unfavorable for any sort of tropical development due to outbreaks of Saharan dust. It is expected that these outbreaks of Saharan dust will persist for at least the next couple of week & this will prevent any sort of development from occurring across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic through early August.

A look towards the western North Atlantic reveals that extremely strong wind shear is present across the Caribbean and the Gulf today. It is expected that this very strong wind shear will persist across the Caribbean for at least the next couple of weeks. In fact, longer range model guidance seems to suggest that this El Nino fueled strong wind shear may remain across the Caribbean as well as across the central Tropical Atlantic for the rest of this hurricane season. This means that the Caribbean and the central Tropical Atlantic could be all but shut down in terms of tropical activity for this hurricane season.

The sub-tropical Atlantic (the area north of 20 North Latitude) is also currently unfavorable for tropical development. This is due to high amounts of wind shear that’s present across much of the region. It’s possible that the environmental conditions may become more favorable for tropical development as we get into early and mid-August. That being said, the model guidance seems to suggest that all may remain quiet through early August, although a few of the ensemble model members hint at development off of the US East Coast during next week. Even if we do see tropical development occur off of the East Coast, it would likely to be guided out into the open Atlantic as a upper level trough of low pressure will be anchored over the eastern US during early August.

Bottom Line Is That there is nothing to be concerned about in terms of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf this week.