There remains the possibility of tropical development sometime during this weekend or early next week over the eastern and northeastern Gulf. That being said, as of right now, the chances for tropical development are very low.
A frontal boundary is expected to push southward into the eastern Gulf by this weekend. There then is the possibility that a low pressure system could form near the tail end of this front over the eastern or northeastern Gulf during the weekend. Should this occur, it could lead to the development of a tropical system that forms this weekend into early next week somewhere over the eastern or northeastern Gulf.
A look at the model guidance reveals that the European AIFS and its ensemble members remain the most aggressive with showing tropical development. It should be pointed out that the European AIFS model has been over forecasting tropical development lately and this is something that should be considered when trying to determine whether tropical development might occur.
As for the other model guidance, the most recent run of the GFS model shows no development at all. The Canadian model, interestingly, shows the possible development occurring near the coast of the Carolinas during the first half of next week. Last night’s run of the European model does hint at development occurring over the northeastern Gulf by early next week. The newest run of the ICON model now also shows tropical development occurring in the northeastern Gulf this weekend with the system heading for the Florida Panhandle during early next week.
Here Are My Thoughts: I definitely think that tropical development in the eastern and northeastern Gulf is a possibility this weekend or early next week. As of right now, I think the chances of tropical development are around 20 to 30 percent or so.
The setup for tropical development in the eastern and northeastern Gulf this weekend or early next week is one that’s kind of classic. This setup is expected to include a low pressure system forming near the tail end of an old front. This low pressure system would also form under an upper-level high pressure system located to the north & overall the environmental conditions look at least marginal for development. That being said, there are a couple of negative environmental conditions that could put a stop to any sort of development. This includes some northerly wind shear and dry continental air that could affect whatever tries to form.
Again, my thinking is that the chances for tropical development are very low this weekend into early next week across the eastern and northeastern Gulf. That being said, it is something that I’ll be keeping a close eye on throughout this week.
