Satellite imagery and weather analysis today revealed that an area of convection has formed just offshore of the South Carolina and Georgia coastline. This convection has formed near the tail end of a frontal boundary & it appears that a low pressure system has formed from this convection.
A look at the environmental conditions around this low pressure system reveals that while the wind shear values are favorable for development, there is quite a bit of dry air surrounding this disturbance. This can easily be seen in water vapor imagery. This dry air is likely to limit any sort of tropical development from occurring & I certainly think that we will not see any sort of tropical development from this low pressure system.
The Google Deep Mind ensemble guidance, which was the most “enthused” model in showing development last week, now has all but dropped the forecast of development of this low pressure system. In fact, the latest model run from the Google Deep Mind model now has less than a 5 percent chance of development of this disturbance.
It is expected that this low pressure system will get trapped underneath a large upper-level high pressure system that’s centered over the Ohio Valley. This is the same upper-level high pressure system that will be producing dangerous heat and humidity across much of the central and eastern United States throughout this week.
The upper-level high pressure system is expected to steer the low pressure system and its associated area of disturbed weather westward back towards the coast of southeast Georgia or the South Carolina coast by late this week.
Again, I am not expecting to see any sort of development from this low pressure system & the flood threat from this system late this week across the southeastern US is extremely low due to the likelihood of dry, sinking air that’ll be present across much of the eastern United States this week. That said, this disturbance may still produce some increase in the afternoon thunderstorm activity from the Georgia coastline westward to across the Florida Peninsula and into the northern Gulf coast late this week into this weekend.
Elsewhere across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf – All is quiet and no tropical development is expected throughout this week through the weekend.
Given that it looks pretty notable on satellite imagery, I did want to mention the area of convection now located just north of the Leeward Islands near 22 North Latitude, 62 West Longitude. This convection is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. While it looks impressive on satellite imagery, tropical development of this system is not expected due to strong amounts of wind shear & an abundance of dry air that surrounds this convection. It is expected that this convection will be picked up by that old front offshore of the southeast coast of the US in a day or two & be swept out into the open Atlantic.