Today is the official start of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season & fortunately, there is nothing out there that’s going to immediately develop.
Weather analysis today revealed that there is a low pressure system now located off of the South Carolina coast. The environmental conditions around this low pressure are highly unfavorable for tropical development. It is expected that this low pressure system will head out into the open Atlantic over the next few days.
There is also a frontal boundary that’s now pushing southward through the Mid-Atlantic states right now. It is expected that this frontal boundary will push through the southeastern United States as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday and may then get hung up in the area from the Florida Peninsula to just north of the Bahamas by the second half of this week. Low pressure systems are expected to form and track along this front from the eastern Gulf to the southwestern North Atlantic between Tuesday and Thursday. While tropical or sub-tropical development seems unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions, they will be watched, just in case.
Another area that I am going to be watching will be the central and western Gulf later this week where there is the possibility that a piece of energy will lift northward from the Yucatan Peninsula into the central and western Gulf by Wednesday and Thursday. This piece of energy will then head towards coastal parts of Louisiana or the upper Texas coast by about Friday.
It’s possible that this piece of atmospheric energy could lead to the development of a low pressure system, but at this point, I think the chances of anything tropical coming from it are extremely low.
What this piece of atmospheric energy will probably do is bring locally heavy rainfall to parts of the central and western Gulf Coast between Wednesday and Friday.
Looking beyond this week, it’s possible that the environmental conditions may become a little more favorable for tropical development in the Gulf and the southwestern North Atlantic by the middle part of this month. If this occurs, then it could open the door for the possibility of something to watch in terms of tropical development.
Right now, there aren’t any consistent model signals that point towards development around mid-month. That being said, there are some low key signals from the GFS ensemble and the European ensemble model guidance that point towards the Gulf and the southwestern North Atlantic might be a spot to keep an eye on, just in case.
FINALLY – Where today is the official start of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, I am asking everyone to strongly encourage everyone you know to become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber. As you know, as a subscriber, it’s well worth the money for what you get. The link to pass along to everyone you know to subscribe is https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .
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