After bringing hurricane conditions to Bermuda last night, Melissa has become extra-tropical as it now heads rapidly northeastward into the open Atlantic. Because of this, we can now finally close the books on this terrible hurricane that brought so much devastation.

The rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf are quiet today and no tropical development is expected for at least the next week to possibly 10 days.

Now, are we done with the hurricane season? My take as of today is we probably aren’t quite done with seeing any more tropical systems. As I mentioned in my discussion yesterday, we are currently in weak La Nina conditions. Looking at past hurricane seasons with La Nina conditions revealed that about 75 percent of them had at least one tropical storm or hurricane during the months of November and December. Given the stats, I do think that there is a relatively high chance that we’ll probably see maybe 1 or even 2 more tropical systems before we can finally put a fork into the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Investigating this further reveals that an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation may make its way into the Caribbean by mid to late November. Should this occur, then we could see favorable conditions for one last gasp at tropical development during the second half of November.

Where could we see tropical development occur? The Southwestern Caribbean is a common place that we look at for tropical development during the month of November. In fact, satellite imagery indicated that there is some convection occurring near the north coast of Panama. This convection is being caused by the tail end of a stationary front in the area. While this will be watched for signs of organization and development, I’m not anticipating to see any sort of robust development from it. It’s possible that we might have to watch the southwestern Caribbean for tropical development during the second half of November.

Other areas of the Atlantic that are usual suspects for tropical development in November include the area out in the central North Atlantic where we can sometimes see a tropical system track from near Bermuda northeastward to the Azores.

It is normally very rare to see a tropical storm or hurricane impact the US coastline in the month of November. Yes, it has happened before, but it’s relatively rare.

Bottom line is that tropical development is not expected for at least the next week to ten days, if not longer. We might have to look towards the southwestern Caribbean for the slight possibility of tropical development during the second half of November.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.