I wanted to send out a quick update concerning the likelihood that a low pressure system will form over the north-central and northeastern Gulf by late Friday into Saturday. The environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for any sort of tropical development due to strong wind shear. This low pressure system is expected to track into southern Alabama and southern Mississippi by Saturday night and Sunday.

Even though tropical development is not expected with this low pressure system, the moisture and energy with this low pressure system will be abundant. Because of this, heavy flooding rains are expected to develop across southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle by Friday night and Saturday. This heavy rain, which will produce flash flooding is expected to continue across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and north Florida during Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and north Florida between Friday night and Sunday evening.

Even more heavy rain is expected across central and north Florida, much of Georgia, much of South Carolina and southern North Carolina on Monday through Tuesday. 2 to 5 inches of additional rainfall can be expected.

Needless to say, this low pressure system will be a flood producer even though it will not be sub-tropical or tropical in nature.

A full tropical weather discussion will be sent out sometime tomorrow (Friday) updating you on the Gulf system, as well as the latest on possible western Caribbean tropical development.