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Now let’s get into the latest tropical weather discussion shall we?

Analysis of satellite imagery, weather data & short-range model guidance reveals that there are no areas of immediate concern in terms of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf.

While tropical development looks unlikely throughout this upcoming week, it does look like there will be the development of a low pressure system in the area halfway between Bermuda and the southeastern Bahamas during the middle part of this week. This low pressure system is expected to be short-lived, non-tropical in nature and should weaken and dissipate by the end of this coming week.

Looking Beyond This – I think that it’s possible that we will see tropical development occur in the western and southwestern Caribbean during the second half of this month.

The longer range model guidance seems to be gradually agreeing on the possibility of an area of disturbed weather to form over the western and southwestern Caribbean starting during the weekend of May 17-18 and continuing into late May. The part that the model guidance does disagree on is when and where any development might occur.

The GFS model guidance is showing some development to occur by May 19 in the deep southwestern Caribbean.

The GFS ensemble model guidance seems to agree with the GFS operational model, but seems to be pointing towards any development might occur towards the northwestern Caribbean by May 19. There are quite a few members of the GFS ensemble model that point to the area to watch is from the northwestern Caribbean to perhaps as far northeast as the northwestern Bahamas.

The Canadian model forecasts no development at all over the next 10 days.

While the European operational model forecasts no development at all, some of its ensemble members do hint at possible disturbed weather in the area of the Caribbean just west of Jamaica by the weekend of May 17-18. Also, the longer range European ensemble model guidance is pointing towards a 30-40 percent chance of tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean during the week of May 19 with these 30-40 percent chances continuing through the week of May 26.

Also, the CFS model seems to be pointing towards the possibility of storminess and at least one area of disturbed weather over the western Caribbean during the week of May 19.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I mentioned in my discussion on May 1, it looks as if an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will push into the Caribbean and the Atlantic during the second half of this month. This could lead to a favorable pattern for tropical development to occur in the Atlantic Basin starting during the week of May 19.

One thing that I wanted to point out is that the model guidance this time of year has a habit of erroneously forecasting tropical development in the western Caribbean, when in the end, the development actually occurs in the eastern Pacific instead. It’s quite possible that we are seeing the same thing here with the model guidance.

That all said, I do think that there is probably about a 20 percent chance that we will see some sort of tropical development occur in the western Caribbean during the week of May 19. My reasoning for this is because while climatology does favor development in the eastern Pacific this time of year, the forecast amount of wind shear over the western Caribbean will be lower than average. These lower than average wind shear values combined with a favorable background state could lead to tropical development to occur in the western Caribbean during the week of May 19. Any system that does try to form in the western Caribbean during the week of May 19 may be guided from the western Caribbean northeastward towards the northwestern Bahamas and then up near the East Coast of the United States.

This is something that I’m going to be keeping a close eye on. That said, it’s nothing to be overly concerned about or worried about, for now.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.