Summary: All indications seem to be pointing towards that this hurricane season may be below average in terms of the number of storms that occur. It appears that a moderate El Nino will develop by this summer & then possibly trend towards a strong El Nino by this autumn. Should this occur, it would lead to the atmospheric state to be unfavorable for tropical storms and hurricanes to form in the deep tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean. This means that any tropical storms or hurricanes that do form would probably do so in the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude, as well as in the Gulf.
The Numbers: 11 Named Storms, 5 of those storms becoming Hurricanes and 2 of those hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index Forecast: I am forecasting an ACE index this year of 80, which signals that this will probably be a below average season.
ENSO Conditions: All data is pointing towards a moderate El Nino developing during this summer. It then appears that the El Nino may intensify into a strong El Nino by this autumn.
The prospects of a El Nino occurring during this summer and autumn will be a negative effect on tropical activity during the hurricane season. This means that below average activity looks fairly probable during this hurricane season in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes.
Sea Surface Temperatures: Ocean water temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic are currently below average. These below average temperatures are also found across a large part of the eastern and central Caribbean. Above average ocean water temperatures are occurring across much of the North Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude. Above average ocean temperatures are also found across much of the Gulf.
The latest model guidance seems to be pointing towards a scenario where areas of the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude are warmer than average as compared to the deep tropics throughout this hurricane season. This could set up a scenario where a majority of the deep tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean are void of tropical activity & that most of the activity occurs north of 20 North Latitude.
Analog Years: These are the analog years that seem to be a close match right now to what the 2026 hurricane season may be like. They are 1951, 1954, 1972, 1985, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2009 & 2015.
Most Of The Activity This Season May Occur During May, June & July: Given the expectation of the strengthening El Nino conditions, I think that it’s quite possible that we could see a fast starting hurricane season that ends up becoming almost non-existent during the peak months of the hurricane season.
This means that I think that busier than average activity in terms of tropical development may be in the offing during May, June and July & that a majority of the storms that do form will do so during these 3 months. I then think that the peak months of August and September could be much quieter than average in terms of tropical development.
Areas Of Concern This Season: The combination of the strengthening El Nino conditions, lower than average wind shear values north of 20 North Latitude & warmer than average ocean water temperatures north of 20 North Latitude makes me think that any tropical storms or hurricanes will either curve towards the Bahamas, the East Coast of the United States & Atlantic Canada or be directed north and northeastward near Bermuda and then out into the open Atlantic.
Another area that I have some concerns with in terms of possible impacts from any tropical storms or hurricanes will be along the US Gulf Coast, especially the central and eastern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. The reason I think this is because I could see a scenario where any westward tropical disturbances moving through the Caribbean will wait to develop until they reach the southern or central Gulf.
I think that the Caribbean & the deep tropical Atlantic will be very quiet as tropical disturbances struggle to develop due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
Finally, even though this looks like it could be a “quiet” hurricane season, it does not mean that there will not be any tropical storm or hurricane impacts. Because of this, always prepare the same way as you would for any other hurricane season.
2026 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names:
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Leah
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred