Very Early Thoughts On The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season (Posted On December 11)

I am already beginning to take a look at what the 2021 Hurricane Season for the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico may be like and early indications are that it could be yet another active season.

The reason why I think this is because the current La Nina conditions are probably going to head for neutral ENSO conditions for the heart of the hurricane season. In fact, we may not see any El Nino conditions until at least winter of 2021-2022.

In addition to this, model guidance from the CFS model and CanSIPS indicate that ocean water temperatures may be above average across much of the Atlantic Basin and that wind shear values may be near or below average across a large part of the Atlantic. This means that environmental conditions may be quite favorable for tropical development.

My preliminary numbers for the 2021 Hurricane Season are:
15 to 20 Named Storms.
10 Hurricanes.
5 Major Hurricanes.

Unlike 2020, I think that the 2021 Hurricane Season may see much more in the long-track storms, which could put the Lesser Antilles and at least the eastern half of the Caribbean at risk. This is something that you commonly see with neutral ENSO conditions.

In addition, I think that this could put the Bahamas, much of the Florida Peninsula and the U.S. East Coast at risk in 2021. Any small deviations in the track could also put the eastern Gulf of Mexico at risk as well.

Finally, with ENSO conditions potentially warming towards El Nino conditions, it could lead to an end of the hurricane season sometime during October or very early November.

I will be monitoring the long range signals for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season very closely in the coming months and will have updates for you as needed.